slim or bad?

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
in a field this big, no one has a 9 or a 5?

[/ QUOTE ]

nope.

[ErrantNight]

if you call T9s...

T8s can't possibly be "far too marginal"

[ErrantNight]

runner runner draws are NOT very, very bad.

why do you think so much time is spent discussing their importance if you should ignore them?

why must villain bet the turn with a boat?

although i agree the turn is uncomfortable.

[ErrantNight]

i think it was not so bad. i think i'm in the minority. thoughts?

better had 66, others had A high

Preflop T9s is a definate call. T8s slim call against 4 bad opponents.

Flop I'm 10% to get my flush or straight. Getting what was 16 to 1, I call. Counting when I'm beat I think it's slim but positive,

Turn I have the flush draw, it's second best a decent portion of the time, but I'm getting 10-1 and I'm folding if anyone else wakes back up. Slim . . . probably negative.

River - I'm getting 16 to 1. The other players didn't fill up or they would have bet more by now, so I only have to beat the better who is a lag 1 out of 17 times. Hell he bluffs way more than this. LAGS love calling with A high on this board, and they love betting when they fill up even with the 5, so I think I beat the other players a huge portion of the time. Slim, but definately positve IMO.

Maybe I didn't make it clear but all my opponents were really bad.

bettor had 66, others had A high

Preflop T9s is a definate call. T8s slim call against 4 bad opponents. Trust me I considered how bad they are before calling.

Flop I'm 8.6% to get my flush or straight. I need 10-1, but I'm getting 16-1. Counting when I'm beat I think it's slim but positive. Plus my one over card gives me a little.

Turn I have the flush draw, it's second best a decent portion of the time, but I'm getting 10-1. I need 4-1. I think the 10-1 makes up for when I am second best. And I'm folding if anyone else wakes back up. Slim. I think positive.

River - I'm getting 16 to 1. The other players didn't fill up or they would have bet more by now, so I only have to beat the bettor who is a lag 1 out of 17 times. Hell he bluffs way more than this. LAGS love calling with A high on this board, and they love betting when they fill up even with the 5, so I think I beat the other players a huge portion of the time. Slim, but definately positve IMO.

Maybe I didn't make it clear but all my opponents were really bad.

[ErrantNight]

i think everyone enamored with folding should provide some well-reasoned argument why a fold anywhere here is good.

Don't like cold calling with this pre-flop. Fold for me.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
i think everyone enamored with folding should provide some well-reasoned argument why a fold anywhere here is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought I did...there are 5 other hands, some from donks. 10 cards out there... decent chance at a 5. The cards that accompany a played 5 are cards you might need for a straight (ie a 6 or 7). Good chance of other pocket pairs. Combined, the boat potential is large. The flush is only a 10-high, so it must be discounted. The chances of running the gauntlet here are hideous. You'll cash big a few times, but leak small many many more times.

I just monte-carloed that flop v 5 random hands and the ev is 11%. This is a best case as the 5 opponents will not be random. PFR showed strength already and everyone else had enough to call a bet, so my revised hand holdings would be stronger than random.

[ErrantNight]

(a) what does a "decent" chance at a 5 mean? Given that only the preflop raiser bet, and you've got donks calling along, it's far more likely that there is NOT a 5, than there is one. Sure they might be sandbagging, but frequently they won't. Plus, the number of playable hands that include a 5 are very, very few.

"the cards that accompany" 5's (say, 56s or 57s) are an incredibly small portion of villain's collective potential hands. fearing them is akin to fearing that someone has 99 (yes, I'm exaggerating a little). Further, you don't need either a 6 or a 7 at any point to make a straight. The chance of 6,7 falling, and somebody having a boat, is extraordinarily slim. Enough to discount your outs, but not discredit them. Not even close

(b) The flush being 10-high so being discounted. This IS discounted when factoring in your runner-runner flush. Particularly since you may have pair outs that are still good. By completely discounting pair outs entirely and giving yourself only 3 outs, you are covering those times you hit a big hand and lose by virtue of the times you pair up and win.

(c) They're donks. They will call flops like this, LITERALLY, with any two cards. You are not committing to a showdown. You're committing for 1 small bet getting 16.5:1 when your odds to improve to the best hand are SIGNIFICANTLY higher. If action intensifies, or you don't improve on the turn, you step away from the hand.



Most telling is your comment:

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You'll cash big a few times, but leak small many many more times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Precisely. You don't need to win this hand very frequently to make calling the flop correct. The odds, clearly delineated, show this. Until the action in any way indicates you are behind and likely dominated, which it hasn't, folding is passing on a slim, but rather obvious, +ev situation.