A triplet of Ax hands

[DMBFan23]

if by black you mean offsuit then I fold PF in hand 1.

hand 2 is fine because you have to call almost on backdoors alone, CO shouldn't cap his TP, and you can legitimately clean up some ace outs here. I don't think free cards or eliminating CO should be part of the discussion, but I dont think you see it that way either. what would button's capping range here be?

hand 3, I check-fold the flop. reverse implied odds blow.

[jason_t]

I sincerely don't understand how anyone can suggest a preflop or flop fold.

[jason_t]

This post is intended for those of you saying to 3-bet the AK preflop. My idea was this: I thought that my EV would be higher by passing up my preflop equity edge to control the pot size and eliminate some of the field on the flop. That is, it's entirely possible that

EV(3-bet and call a cap) < EV(call and check/raise a lot of flops)

but I don't admit to know the truth of this. This is possibly true if I can increase my chances of winning significantly enough with a flop check/raise to make up for the lost preflop equity. However, if you're going to make comments about the lack of a 3-bet, how about convincing me with some mathematics rather than rhetoric?

[jason_t]

The Button is very aggressive and loves to bluff. I have a wheel draw and possibly the best hand with A high. I didn't check/raise because I think my EV might be higher by letting him bluff more. I don't know. I posted these hands for help in analysis.

[DMBFan23]

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I sincerely don't understand how anyone can suggest a preflop or flop fold.

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I am willing to admit that my BB defense guidelines are largely arbitrary, what is the lowest you will go here?

[B Dids]

ME HAVE GOOD HAND (wherein good=likely better than everybody else) ME RAISE.

I think this is a time where math overcomplicates things, especially if we're tryign to c/r a lot of flops, because with 8 people in the pot, that's just way too many variables to control.

I specifically dislike the plan of calling preflop with the intention of c/ring a lot of boards because again, there's so many variables. What flops, who bets, who calls, it's all a bit far to go to get value when a simply preflop 3-bet probably makes the hand easier to play post flop as well.

[MrEngenic]

I'm not sure I like a single post flop decision and I don't like preflop in hand 1 and 2. What's your BB/100, maybe I have alot to learn from you.

[private joker]

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i think he said "gg" because there were 8 limpers and it was a good game, but i might be wrong

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It was an inside joke/reference to this post, from a thread where the idea of not raising AKo PF from the BB against a family pot of limpers was laughed out of the building.

[toss]

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i think he said "gg" because there were 8 limpers and it was a good game, but i might be wrong

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It was an inside joke/reference to this post, from a thread where the idea of not raising AKo PF from the BB against a family pot of limpers was laughed out of the building.

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But in this hand Jason is gonna argue that he called PF so he can knock people out postflop on a reasonable flop.

[jason_t]

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i think he said "gg" because there were 8 limpers and it was a good game, but i might be wrong

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It was an inside joke/reference to this post, from a thread where the idea of not raising AKo PF from the BB against a family pot of limpers was laughed out of the building.

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There's a huge difference between these two situations. In my situation there is an aggressive Button who I can exploit postflop to increase my chances of winning the pot. If that chance is p and p is large enough so that

.18 * (expected final pot size after 3-betting preflop) < p * (expected final pot size after not 3-betting preflop)

then my idea is a good one. The .18 comes from AK's hot/cold equity against eight random hands. Of course, it's very difficult to estimate p but I do know that with this Button I will be able to check/raise against his likely inferior hand a lot. Every limper that I can clear with this check/raise increases p.

This is really no different than passing up a flop equity edge to exploit one on the turn.

Now, there's a little bit more going on. I'm OOP. That hurts my equity a little. My hand is offsuit; big offsuit broadway cards do not like big multiway pots. Moreover, we have six limpers, a Button raise and an SB cold call. On average I would say the chances that no pair and no other Ax or Kx hands are out there is low. This does cut into my average equity.

Again, I'm not claiming to have this figured out. I'm just telling you what my idea was at the table in the two seconds I had to make my decision and I'm hoping to hear some analysis.