($33): Tough bubble decision with a shorty?

[kevkev60614]

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Given your read that he calls with any A, any K, any PP, I think this is a push. If shortie doubles once, you're not a lock for third. If you double here, you stand a fair shot at first.

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Christ, you show a complete lack of understanding of ICM at all times. What the heck is your advice about? Seriously.

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Tigerite, you'd be everybody's favorite poster if you'd post more about strategy and spend less time attacking people. How exactly do I "show a complete misunderstanding of ICM at all times?" In all of my posts?

I think my post was pretty straightforward. I'm saying it's a push. Why call me stupid and then wait an hour to post something intelligent?

What's most confusing about what you said is that I don't think this problem is even completely about ICM. I put the numbers in ICM before my first response and it said a push is +$EV. OP could've done that, if it was purely math. But since CO here will be blinded off in less than an orbit, ICM doesn't apply perfectly.

Most of the posters here post to exchange ideas and learn more about poker. If you know so much more than everyone else that our posts annoy you, why are you still here?

[xJMPx]

Thanks for all the responses, what I'm getting from you guys is the same as what I got from SNTPT. It's close. I think that because his calling range was so large here, I should have folded.

If I even had one more BB I think I would have folded, but I looked at my stack after posting the blind and figured if I didn't push, third was the best I could hope for and it wasn't even in the bag with a fold.

So, I pushed. He called with K9s and I had him dominated. He hit is K on the river and I was out in fourth. Funny thing, he called my A8 (button) last night with KTo (Sb) and I was out again. 0/2 against this guy.

[DMACM]

I am very surprised if anyone genuinely thinks they should fold here. The shorty doubles up next hand I would say 25% of the time. In that case you will likely not get a better spot and this is a fairly good one. If shorty doubles up you will be forced to push an even worse hand through the same bb next time.

[SonnyJay]

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Sigh..

This is a borderline push, it is certainly not "the easiest of all time". I would probably make it in the game, at the table, but be fearing (not welcoming) him calling with QJo and other such crap.

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This is very true. You make this push hoping not to get called and hoping that you have an edge if you are called. Picking up the huge blinds is much more appealing than risking busting out. Even something like QJ will bust you about 43% of the time. Again, I believe you still push but it's close.

And kevkev, while I agree the tone taken by tigerite might have been unnecessary,
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Given your read that he calls with any A, any K, any PP, I think this is a push. If shortie doubles once, you're not a lock for third. If you double here, you stand a fair shot at first.

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seems to indicate you are missing something here. A wider range doesn't mean it's more appealing to push, it's less appealing. While getting called more frequently usually means you'll be ahead more often when you are called, you'd rather not be called as much.

-SonnyJay

[kevkev60614]

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Given your read that he calls with any A, any K, any PP, I think this is a push. If shortie doubles once, you're not a lock for third. If you double here, you stand a fair shot at first.

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seems to indicate you are missing something here. A wider range doesn't mean it's more appealing to push, it's less appealing. While getting called more frequently usually means you'll be ahead more often when you are called, you'd rather not be called as much.

-SonnyJay

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I see that. I wasn't trying to insinuate that a wider range is better for OP, only that for THIS range, it's a push. I didn't even venture to guess whether his range was too tight or too loose. Guess I need to work on clarifying my responses...