Hand from Stars 500k, do you call preflop? Lesbian penguins links !!

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, my reasons toward calling were:

1- The calling by LP does not look like a big pair to me, not even a medium pair.

2- My cards are most probably live and after calling I have enough chips (55k) to make the other 2 players fold in the flop if this is good to me.

3- Because of the dry pot, there is a decent chance the pot will be checked in the flop if nobody pairs.

4- I'm first to act in the flop, so if I play after the flop I'm going all in, and the other 2 players will have a tough call to make if they have just a little piece of the flop, lets suppose the flop comes 865, I'm pushing for sure, and if they have something like A6,K6, T8, they'll have a hard time to call in this spot.

5- And the most important reason of all, if I fold I have 64k, if I play and nothing happens, I'll have 55k, with these blinds 4k-8k; I think that's almost the same for me in the next round.

What do you think of these reasons?

FWIW I don't care about the implied odds here, for me its just a chance to move between 64k and 115k vs between 64k and 55k.

[/ QUOTE ]

I make the call for all those reasons. Button is very, very unlikely to flat call and beckon the blinds in with overpair and other strong hands. I really can't understand folding here with conditions so right and the risk relatively low. I mean you're going to have to make something happen soon in this tournament, this is a GREAT spot to move your way up the food chain. I would play as you did and have zero regrets.


Everett

[Exitonly]

well you're right, this isn't as clearly -cEV as i thought.. if this were to go to showdown every time, you've got like 20% equity vs all 3 of them, so w/ 5:1 odds preflop..

hm.

If you hit the flop and get heads up w/ the all in guy, lets say the board comes out 237JQ rainbow.. you'll win 64% of the time vs his random hand.

ok so to figure out if this is good or not, ,theres a lot of guesswork..

lets say you catch enough of the flop to push 50% of the time. If either of the other guyys catch a peicee they're probably coming along w/ 2:1 odds. Using that previous board, of 237JQr, i figure you're called on the flop by:

22+,A7s,A3s-A2s,87s,76s,A7o,A3o-A2o

so, by the river, vs a caller and the random hand you're:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

41,696,817 games 32.844 secs 1,269,541 games/sec

Board: 2c 3d 7s Jd Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.9590 % 26.47% 00.48% { 7d6c }
Hand 2: 26.6585 % 26.49% 00.17% { random }
Hand 3: 46.3825 % 45.99% 00.39% { 22+, A7s, A3s-A2s, 87s, 76s, A7o, A3o-A2o }
</pre><hr />

alright, so when you hit the flop (50%) and you're called (50%), you're worth:
(((50k pot + 50k call) * (27% you win)) - ((50k you had) * (73% you lose))) * (50% hit flop) * (50% get called) = -2.5k

when you hit the flop, and are not called you're worth:
(50k pot) * (64% you win) - (0 extra investment) * (36% you lose) * (.5 you hit ) * (.5 you arent called) = +8k.

ok, so when you hit the flop it's +5.5k.... i think.


And all of a sudden, i dont feel like doing this anymore, but i think where i'm going, is that you have to have an expectation of +3.5k when you miss the flop, for it to be break even. (9k investment PF, you make 5.5k when you hit the flop, so you have to make 3.5k when youd ont hit, for it to be even)

--

Anyone see some mistakes i made? or wanna pick up where i left off?


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I picked the flop 237JQ becaue that looks like an 'average' flop that you can hit. dunnno if theres any merit behind that.

[CardSharpCook]

sirio, I do think this is -EV, but not for more than, say, 3K chips. The problems are obvious. 67o doesn't play well. Period. Doesn't play well HU, doesn't play well in a multi-way pot, doesn't play well for a complete for less than 4 players. About the only way it plays well is HU in the BB vs. a SB raise. You shouldn't really need to see the math on this. You are OOP with a weak hand. What happens when you pair? What board are you hoping for? I mean, you got a dream board, and then bet it like you were gunning for the main, implied odds be damned. I don't get it. You KNOW that implied odds are why you played this hand, but then you throw those out the window. It is a PF fold because 67o sucks and you are OOP. It is a flop chk/rz because you are GOING to get someone else to bet at this pot. Why? Because you may not even have a chance at the main. 88+ and all you're doing is preventing other players from beating him. Not to mention the guy who called behind could easily have a PP, only 2 of which are now losing to you. Fine, TT-AA is less likely, but it is common to see players try to get more action here with AA/KK. It is the classic problem of feeling like you have to do something to increase your chip stack. Fine, you aren't throwing away too many chips, but 67o is a very difficult hand to play OOP with few chips to work with. But hell, you know all this. You have counseled patience to me when I reraise with KQ or open raise OOP with 33. Patience is the correct option here too.