alright, let me see if I can avoid butchering this one

[brettbrettr]

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we are definitely not ahead of Button at this stage in the hand.

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agreed.

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If we're continuing, it has to be on the assumption that we can force him to fold a better hand.

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agreed. But there are some turn cards that really won't help us out. I think seeing the turn in a big pot for one bet is fine here, though, if we can do so.


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that we can be pretty sure that we'll be 3-bet by Mr. Spewer when we do that, I don't think it's worth trying.

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Being 3 bet by Spewer would be uncomfortable. But it doesn't mean we're behind.

[Luv2DriveTT]

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I typed out a pretty long response, hit the back button to make sure I was remembering the flop correctly, and lost it because the new "upgraded" forums can't remember what I typed (like the old ones could). [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

In a nutshell: we are definitely not ahead of Button at this stage in the hand. If we're continuing, it has to be on the assumption that we can force him to fold a better hand...given that doing so probably involves raising at some point, and that we can be pretty sure that we'll be 3-bet by Mr. Spewer when we do that, I don't think it's worth trying.

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DING DING DING!

Button raises - we are out of there before we need to go any further.
Button calls - We can expect the Maniac to bet the turn, which allows us the raise if we so choose. Button is weak enough to fold some holdings at that point, and will likely get us to showdown or if we are really lucky fold the maniac (unlikely if he has as little as a pair).

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[Dagger78]

I like a pre-flop fold when we have to call 2 bets back to us pre-flop. We're likely badly behind the button at this point.

Does the spewing LAG give us the ability to call here?

[brettbrettr]

I think the predictability of *both* opponents allow for a pre-flop call.

[Harv72b]

Meh. This whole hand has the stench of pouring a bunch of bets into the pot in order to chase 2 SBs that we put in with a preflop raise. Which again brings me back to the point that we should have just folded preflop after Mr. Rock 3-bet & the maniac was kind enough to cap and give us an excuse to get out of the way.

I can't imagine that we end up winning this pot nearly often enough to make up for all the extra bets we lose the other times, keeping in mind that we not only have to make Button fold what is undoubtedly a better hand, but also have to hope that BB does not have us beat and does not suck out on us later in the hand when we are ahead of him on the flop.

Just muck 'em and let the rock call him down. But if you are continuing, you have to raise the flop and give the rock reason to see his monsters under the bed.

I just feel like folding preflop and flop because the odds are not good enough knowing what we know about the rock (the information on the "laggier than normal" is a bit light).

I just analysed our hand against the contingent of combonations we might be up against using http://www.pokerlistings.com/poker-odds-calculator, but the friggin server ate it. So, you will have to take my word: the rock needs to have KK/AK and the lag ATo/99 or worse for us to break even. The best reasonable case has us winning 25%. So over all the possibilities, this is -EV, and even when it is +EV, it is too difficult to know when we are ahead. If any party has AA, we are never +EV.

Fold.


EDIT: Now that we are at the flop, I don't like raising to push out the rock because while it will provide information (info that is already out there, IMO) it will not make money enough. I don't see a rock that has sprung out of bed hiding back under the covers.

[brettbrettr]

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This whole hand has the stench of pouring a bunch of bets into the pot in order to chase 2 SBs that we put in with a preflop raise. Which again brings me back to the point that we should have just folded preflop after Mr. Rock 3-bet & the maniac was kind enough to cap and give us an excuse to get out of the way.

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Harv,

You're not chasing 2 sbs, you're chasing the big ole pot. As such, you're not looking for an excuse to get out of the way, you're looking for one to play.

With a different lineup--say, change the button to a creative, aggressive, thinking player, and I think you'd have a more valid case for *never* playing the hand like this. But, given the predictability of each player post-flop, and the strong, strong read oin the button, all we're doing on the flop is investing one more bet to see the turn.

Again, this is a really tight spot and maybe we are throwing good money after bad here. What I do think is true is that:

1. We're very often ahead of the spewer.
2. We're almost always behind the button.

Seeing as how the pot is big a turn raise could force a button fold his better hand and get us HU with a guy who could have anything, in a big pot.

[brettbrettr]

Now make the lags hand any two and think about our equity if the button folds.

I don't mean to sound dismissive but this situation is not at all about showing down a winner so a hot and cold simulation doesn't apply at all.

[brettbrettr]

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We can expect the Maniac to bet the turn, which allows us the raise if we so choose.

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I've alluded to this too (and of course we've read the book) but what are we doing with the following cards?

Are we raising an ace? Again, I think this might be a just call spot.

Are we raising a king?

[Harv72b]

Granted, we're in the hand already. I've said my peace about preflop. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think what you're missing postflop is the view from Button's perspective. He's a rock--a tight passive. He's tight/passive because he expects the worst...if he's dealt KK he expects an ace to flop; if he's got AK, he expects to whiff and lose to 44. If he's got QQ, he expects someone else to have AA.

We don't have to resort to trickery to get Button out of the hand, especially if he's "only" got AK. As far as he knows, you had every intention of capping preflop before BB took that priviledge away from you. He saw you raise, then he saw you call 2 more when your only options were that or folding. You could have AA for all he knows. He does know that the guy in the BB is kinda kooky that if he calls your 2 bets on the flop he'll probably end up calling 2 more to see a turn, and then 2 more on the turn, and then...

I don't think we have to pull a "wait for the turn" move here to simulate a bigger hand than we have, and I also don't think it's wise to depend on a passive player to raise this flop, after all that preflop action, in order to tell us what we already know (that we're behind).

If flat calling to see if Button raises tells us anything new about his hand, doesn't it tell us even more if he 3-bets after we raise?

Either way, I still favor folding the flop for 1 bet.