88 hand - $55

[citanul]

first off, i agree with everything that chris says. not a huge surprise.

a comment to the people talking about the preflop raise size...

yes, there's players who are just going to make that raise (and slightly smaller raises) only with huge hands. that's just going to happen, and it sucks and all, but generally they only get you once before you note them up.

what i find interesting about the raise size is that he clearly is going to call if hte short stack pushes out of hte bb, but we probably have quite a bit of folding equity even though it's only another 500 chips for him to go with you instead...

you say that you know the player plays higher. it would be fairly intersting to know what player it is, i suppose, but not incredibly interesting...

anyway, i htink that's all i really want to say on the hand at the moment, nap time, maybe foxwoods tomorrow.

c

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a reaaaaly easy push. Wow. This is definitely the weirdest thread I've ever seen on here. How is anyone not pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well me, I'm a weak-tight pansy.

I've been wrong many times before. I like being wrong on the forums. It means I've learned something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry I really sounded like a dick, and I'm not trying to be, I was just really surprised when everyone in this thread was saying fold. Maybe that's why I was being so definitive, but I was just honestly very surprised at the fact that no one was saying push, not that the fact some people said fold.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a reaaaaly easy push. Wow. This is definitely the weirdest thread I've ever seen on here. How is anyone not pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well me, I'm a weak-tight pansy.

I've been wrong many times before. I like being wrong on the forums. It means I've learned something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry I really sounded like a dick, and I'm not trying to be, I was just really surprised when everyone in this thread was saying fold. Maybe that's why I was being so definitive, but I was just honestly very surprised at the fact that no one was saying push, not that the fact some people said fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't think you were dickish at all. You were pretty blunt and I think real poker players interested in improving their game will be able to take bluntness and appreciate the fact that they mave have gained valuable and moneymaking information.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a reaaaaly easy push. Wow. This is definitely the weirdest thread I've ever seen on here. How is anyone not pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I think it's more neutral ev. But since you think it's soooo easy, why not elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming BB is folding, the ICM wants 59.45% equity to break even on calling a push from big stack. 88 versus a random hand is a monstrous 69.163% and versus a tighter range (say 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, K2o+, Q9o+, JTo) it's 59.975%. So (once again, assuming BB is folding) calling a push is profitable according to the ICM.

But there are two things that make this situation even better. Most obviously, the fold equity. But also, the fact that we shouldn't blindly rely on the ICM in 5 or 6 way situations. Possibly the biggest flaw in the ICM is that it underestimates the utility of a big stack on the bubble. I think the possibility of doubling up to over 3,500 chips here is worth at least 1% of prize pool over and above what the ICM says it's worth.

I know you guys hate having to actually show down cards, but seriously. Sometimes you gotta take a stand.

[curtains]

Well folding is ridiculous, so you can either move allin or call and push the flop. Either is fine IMO. I usually just push here, especially with such a strong hand, but I wouldn't criticize for stop+going.