oh thou pocket dueces, how i love thee

[rory]

postflop doesn't seem bad to me. the BB will probably outright fold 33-TT, maybe JJ, maybe some Axish hands. hands like QT or QJ or even KJ might not have 3-bet preflop too, so it makes it less likely he has those sorts of hands. if he shows any more aggression you can easily fold. if you take this line you should fire on the turn too and give up if he calls.

[Lash]

[ QUOTE ]
im not justifying my play, but i think its closer than alot of people think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure it is closer than most people think, especially because you were there and had a feel for the situation.

But the flaw I see in the rationale for raising on the flop is that you are giving your opponent way too much credit for thinking like you would in his spot. The only reason I recognize this is because it's a huge leak in my game. I'm not saying it's a leak in yours... but that may be what's at work here as you decide to raise... you may be giving him too much credit for being capable of 3 betting light from the bb pf with the intention of pushing you off of a steal...He's likely not thinking that deeply... most just want to look at a flop cheaply, not get all crazy out of position with marginal hands.

When I look at this flop in your spot I think that I'm likely behind, he 3 bet from the bb (different than sb) and on average he's not going anywhere unless I commit a lot of chips.

[Subfallen]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont know why you played this way sub. i think you played this hand terribly. if youre going to play 55 there you need to 3bet, but i would certainly advise folding.

after youve raised the flop which i really dont think i like and the BB calls 2, you should be checking the turn and folding to a river bet. i think the fact that you won this hand is an anomaly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pre-flop:
Yes, 2+2 standard dogma dictates fold/3-bet, but I don't mind cold-calling this against an average PFR I know I can out-play postflop. Basically, instead of 3-betting pre-flop, I save that extra SB to seize the initiative on favorable flops like this one...and just save it period by folding on unfavorable flops. (An average 18% PFR will be unpaired on this flop 45% of the time.)

Flop:
BB was a very straightforward over-aggro who (1) led almost any hand middle pair or better; (2) had transparent timing tells. When he checked the flop I was very confident I had him beat.

Turn:
UTG thought before calling the flop, so he's probably A-high. BB would either have bet or the timing of his check would have been different if the turn helped him. Don't want to give a free card.

River:
Standard.

Edit - All that said, I still really prefer folding pre-flop. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[TStoneMBD]

oh well your postflop reads are impressive but considering those your postflop play is justified. however, i think common poker theory says that you shouldnt be coldcalling small pairs heads up when on the button. you need to either 3 bet them or fold. however, with your impressive read of the BB a coldcall might actually have merit because you probably want him in the pot instead out of it since your postflop edge against him is probably very great.

[Subfallen]

See my edit above. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Danenania]

I think it's somewhat close but I like a flop fold. If you could trust him to always fold 88-JJ immediately then it would be good, but you will have to put in a turn bet too often and even then he may not drop them.