Hand vs. QTip. How terrible is the turn?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Fact: Q-tip is a known 100-tabler who doesn't have time to be tricky enough to play any hand but AKo this way on the flop.

Good turn check.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts at the time were that any hand he just 3 bet me with there is going to get raised on that flop except TT. So, I figured I would just see the turn for cheap. Perhaps a raise would have been good though if it would have gotten rid of the donk. However, whether he would have folded anything for 2 he would have just folded for 1 is questionable. I didn't really think at the time though how painfully obvious my hand would be at that point.

NOW

My question is...

There has to be some confidence level in my hand to make this check +EV. I would think that you would have to be so confident in my hand that if the turn were a blank, you could fold to my raise or what about even just a bet from me after the BB checks. Something tells me that even those here saying this was a good check would still call for one, maybe even two. I'm not sure if either one of these are good if you're confident enough in my hand to check the turn.

I'm not sure how all that works out mathmatically, and I know that there's some reduction in the % necessary given the fact that checking the turn can induce a bet....but I think that factor is small in this situation.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
My question is...

There has to be some confidence level in my hand to make this check +EV. I would think that you would have to be so confident in my hand that if the turn were a blank, you could fold to my raise or what about even just a bet from me after the BB checks. Something tells me that even those here saying this was a good check would still call for one, maybe even two. I'm not sure if either one of these are good if you're confident enough in my hand to check the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

My calculations lead me to believe that the appropriate cut-off for checking the turn is about 20%. That is, If I think I have the best hand less than 20% of the time, I should check here, but if I think I have it more than 20% of the time, I should bet. This is based on UTG+2 coming along, which seems likely.

On the other hand, folding UI on the river to a single bet is a fairly straight-forward bluff catching calculation (fairly because UTG+2 is a bit of an unknown.) The pot would be about 10BB, so we need the best hand only 9% of the time to make the call unimproved (if the turn was a blank and not an A or K).

QTip might play AK, QQ or TT this way, so I the probabilities are clearly there for a river call. The turn bet is right on the edge (we have the best hand 21% of the time against that range). Against a *lesser* [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] player a turn bet seems clear.

In any case, to answer QTip's question, there is room there to both make the turn check and make the river call.

[Redd]

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My calculations lead me to believe that the appropriate cut-off for checking the turn is 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are those calculations prohibitively long to show here? I'm curious how you obtained this number.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My question is...

There has to be some confidence level in my hand to make this check +EV. I would think that you would have to be so confident in my hand that if the turn were a blank, you could fold to my raise or what about even just a bet from me after the BB checks. Something tells me that even those here saying this was a good check would still call for one, maybe even two. I'm not sure if either one of these are good if you're confident enough in my hand to check the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

My calculations lead me to believe that the appropriate cut-off for checking the turn is about 20%. That is, If I think I have the best hand less than 20% of the time, I should check here, but if I think I have it more than 20% of the time, I should bet. This is based on UTG+2 coming along, which seems likely.

On the other hand, folding UI on the river to a single bet is a fairly straight-forward bluff catching calculation (fairly because UTG+2 is a bit of an unknown.) The pot would be about 10BB, so we need the best hand only 9% of the time to make the call unimproved (if the turn was a blank and not an A or K).

QTip might play AK, QQ or TT this way, so I the probabilities are clearly there for a river call. The turn bet is right on the edge (we have the best hand 21% of the time against that range). Against a *lesser* [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] player a turn bet seems clear.

In any case, to answer QTip's question, there is room there to both make the turn check and make the river call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good stuff Octopus.

[QTip]

Can we talk about my flop play and my thoughts there:

[ QUOTE ]
My thoughts at the time were that any hand he just 3 bet me with there is going to get raised on that flop except TT. So, I figured I would just see the turn for cheap. Perhaps a raise would have been good though if it would have gotten rid of the donk. However, whether he would have folded anything for 2 he would have just folded for 1 is questionable. I didn't really think at the time though how painfully obvious my hand would be at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can we also talk about my turn play given the way I played the flop?

Also, what about the river?

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My calculations lead me to believe that the appropriate cut-off for checking the turn is 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are those calculations prohibitively long to show here? I'm curious how you obtained this number.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the more I think about it, the more errors I think of that I made. Anyway here it is and here is what I did wrong:

If we are behind, then betting and getting raised costs us 2BB to get 6BB into the pot. Since we will fill up 22% of the time and we will be good most of the times we fill up, this 6BB is worth 1.32BB to us, sor a net cost of .68BB. If we are ahead, or opponents have (let's say) 6 outs against us. They will draw out on us around 13.5% of the time, for a net benefit of 3.2BB. Thus, ignoring the river, we need to be ahead here 21% of the time to make this bet pay.

Errors:

1) If we are ahead, it will frequently not get raised behind us so the upside is worth 1.6BB, not 3.2BB. This is a major cost and would drive the cut-off to 42%.

2) I have been playing with changes in the action when we are ahead and I think it is close to a wash.

So all things considered, my new estimate for the cut-off is closer to 40% and this is a clear check against this opponent.

[Octopus]

I think the river 3-bet is wrong (given that MP3 was QTip). He has AK, QQ, or TT. Better to let UTG+2 make his crying call than to open ourselves up to a cap if we are behind (even if we could fold to that cap).

Also, it is possible that QTip would lay down AK there if he respected your play.

[shant]

QTip is far less likely to have TT or QQ because he's a good player and doesn't make transparent plays like capping preflop and then checking when he hits a set. His flop check/call to me puts him on AK about 90% of the time, with some weird slowplay the other 10%, and I even think that's stretching it. That leads me to believe that QTip should be betting this flop too.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
That leads me to believe that QTip should be betting this flop too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Had I been thinking just on the 2nd level, I would have done so. Shame on me.

Edit: I guess the question is whether or not getting raised raised on teh flop is worth the deception. I think you're getting raised here about 90% of the time. So, is the deception worth about .9 sb to play the rest of the hand oop against a tag? You tell me.

[shant]

I wish I knew the answer to that but I'm not that good. There are pros and cons to betting, but some of the pros are that there are hands in his 3-betting range that he'll fold right now. I don't think a TAG raises this flop with AK after you have capped preflop, so there's no reason to think you need to call down if you are raised. Honestly, I'm not sure what is right here and I wish someone who knew more than I did would say for sure, but I think it's better than when your hand gets flipped over like in the hand posted above.