AA and I fold like I'm Jason or something - Page 3

shant · #21 10-25-2005, 02:32 AM

Why is everyone so against the turn checkraise? I can definitely count on CO to bet his hand, and I can try and protect my hand against MP2 and get value out of the CO who I definitely thought I was ahead of until he 3-bet the turn.

Borodog · #22 10-25-2005, 02:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why is everyone so against the turn checkraise? I can definitely count on CO to bet his hand, and I can try and protect my hand against MP2 and get value out of the CO who I definitely thought I was ahead of until he 3-bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love the turn c/r. Maybe they mean the proposed cap?

I would have capped the turn, by the way. Did he actually have 9s?

imported_anacardo · #23 10-25-2005, 02:48 AM

Yes, sorry. To clarify: Decline to CAP the turn.

Harv72b · #24 10-25-2005, 02:48 AM

After all that raising on the first 3 streets, during which MP2 did nothing but call, what is he leading the river with that Hero beats?

If MP2 is bad enough to bet the river with 1 pair here, I think Shant would've noticed that in 20 hands; I know I would've. I don't think calling the bet on the river would've been bad, persay, but I definitely think it's a good fold.

Borodog · #25 10-25-2005, 02:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If MP2 is bad enough to bet the river with 1 pair here, I think Shant would've noticed that in 20 hands; I know I would've.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come now. You can't really be serious? There's no way to assert this kind of knowledge about a player after only 20 hands. Or at least I'm very skeptical. I've seen players do crazy things.

What if CO assumes he must be beat and folds. Given that I think we have CO beat a fair amount of the time anyway, this is almost the same situation. Can you fold for one bet then? If not, how can you fold after the CO calls if you often have him beat?

shant · #26 10-25-2005, 03:03 AM

That's an interesting point Borodog. I don't know what I would have done had the CO folded. During the hand, I wasn't so sure I had the CO beat and figured him for 99 or TT when he -bet the turn, so when he called it made the river fold easier.

Harv72b · #27 10-25-2005, 03:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Come now. You can't really be serious? There's no way to assert this kind of knowledge about a player after only 20 hands. Or at least I'm very skeptical. I've seen players do crazy things.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, it's possible that MP2 meant to hit check and accidentally clicked bet instead. It's possible that after all the betting and raising that's gone on so far, MP2 thought his K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] was good on the river. What I'm saying is that, barring a misclick, a guy who's apt to think 1 pair is good on this river (or apt to bluff at it despite all the strength Hero & CO have shown thus far), is quite apt to have done something equally stupid over the span of 20 hands. It only takes one move like that to get noticed.

[ QUOTE ]
What if CO assumes he must be beat and folds. Given that I think we have CO beat a fair amount of the time anyway, this is almost the same situation. Can you fold for one bet then? If not, how can you fold after the CO calls if you often have him beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're into "what ifs" now, and while you make a very interesting theoretical point, it doesn't apply to this hand; we already know that MP2 led the river, and that CO called that lead despite the 4-straight on the board and after 3-betting Hero's turn check/raise.

This whole hand reminds me tremendously of one I played some months ago (and posted), where I flopped an OESD with 77 after a capped preflop (I opened) and called a bajillion & one bets on the flop & turn before hitting my straight on the river. Just like MP2, I led the river because I knew my straight was absolutely, positively good, because I didn't want to risk it being checked through, and because based on all the strength that my opponents had shown on the earlier streets, I was confident of getting 2 calls on the river (or maybe a chance to 3-bet).

Maybe MP2 is retarded, maybe he's trying to bluff at 2 guys who've already put a ton of bets into a huge pot, but I think it much more likely that the 7 on the river helped him; whether it gave him a set, a straight, or two pair...whatever it gave him, it convinced him that he had a reason to bet a river that was almost undoubtedly going to be bet anyway if he checked.

As I said, I don't think overcalling is bad. But I still think that, despite the pot odds, folding is good. At some point you have to draw the line between size of pot and chance that your hand is good, and I simply don't think AA is good 1 in 26 times here. You're essentially hoping that both opponents are completely retarded for it to be.

SackUp · #28 10-25-2005, 03:32 AM

I'm having a tough time folding this hand. I see so many peope make desperation moves with 4 straight or flush on the board. This is basically a clarkmeister because shant already checked and now he just has to scare one more guy off. Ok that is a bit simplified, but the general premise is there and he did get shant to fold.

I would cry seeing that I folded and mhwg in this ginormous pot. Especially when the guy is basically unknown, I have an even harder time laying this down.

private joker · #29 10-25-2005, 05:16 AM

I wouldn't mind a flop checkraise. Give the MPs a chance to make an incorrect fold. CO will definitely bet.

WillMagic · #30 10-25-2005, 07:04 AM

I'd call this river, but that's because if MP2 ever turns over an awful bluff I would be compelled to commit hara-kiri.

Seriously though, the CO's river call is totally irrelevant. We know that he has KK/QQ a huge percentage of the time...so the only question is, are we losing to MP2 a whopping 96% of the time? I'm not so sure.

Another way to look at it. Say MP2 donks the river and CO folds. Do you also fold?

If not, I think you definitely need to rethink your stance.

Will