Darn bottom set

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I'm a little confused why everyone pretends someone doesn't have a made flush here. Its a limped pot. All sorts of suited connectors could have played here.

I think the one who raised played it exactly how someone with a weak made flush would play it.

People seem to always think on a monotone flop that people are drawing for the flush, when in reality, a lot of people, particularly at the $25 tables, play any 2 suited.

If this was a raised pot, it would be less likely to put someone on a flush (only because Ax and Kx would be out).

Personally, I don't think this is the time to go nuts with bottom set.

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I think he probably has the flush too. Probably. Even if he's got it 80% of the time it's an easy push.

[kurto]

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I think he probably has the flush too. Probably. Even if he's got it 80% of the time it's an easy push.

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I'm not sure I understand this. I forget my numbers for boating up with 2 cards to come, but I'm pretty sure its less then 30% of the time, no? I don't think the pot odds are there.

Am I off here?

I think he's a little over 33% to make a boat by the river... Ran it through one calculator and got 34%, though I thought it was more like 38 when I did it in my head.

At any rate, I'd push this hand.

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I think he probably has the flush too. Probably. Even if he's got it 80% of the time it's an easy push.

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I'm not sure I understand this. I forget my numbers for boating up with 2 cards to come, but I'm pretty sure its less then 30% of the time, no? I don't think the pot odds are there.

Am I off here?

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Well, I'm too lazy to do the math exactly, but from rough estimates, if villian has a flush it's about a $2 mistake. If Villian has AxQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or any other non-flush hand (besides a higher set) and calls, Villian gains about $9 on average, or more if he calls with two pair or something. Even if villian folds to the push, Hero gains $8 (what's in the pot)

so, 9 * 20% > 2 * 80% hence +EV

feel free to check the math though

[Finite_Risk]

I think your math is close enough to correct...although I think villian calling with anything other than the flush or AxQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is more remote.

Unless he's sandbagging, no preflop raise lowers prob of AA, KK and AK....A5 should be low prob cuz hero has 2 5's....K5 makes no sense to limp....

Would a baby flush (7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) fold to a push here? (might be the way I play Q10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here, cold calling then pushing if raised) That equity probably makes this okay.

[Mercman572]

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I think he probably has the flush too. Probably. Even if he's got it 80% of the time it's an easy push.

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I'm not sure I understand this. I forget my numbers for boating up with 2 cards to come, but I'm pretty sure its less then 30% of the time, no? I don't think the pot odds are there.

Am I off here?

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i was very surprised to see this when I entered it on twodime. hero is almost 50-50 against a flush. something seem off?

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=...+5h%0D%0A6s+7s

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I think he probably has the flush too. Probably. Even if he's got it 80% of the time it's an easy push.

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I'm not sure I understand this. I forget my numbers for boating up with 2 cards to come, but I'm pretty sure its less then 30% of the time, no? I don't think the pot odds are there.

Am I off here?

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i was very surprised to see this when I entered it on twodime. hero is almost 50-50 against a flush. something seem off?

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=...+5h%0D%0A6s+7s

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ummm.....

WTF?!?

that can't be right....

edit: hehe, just realized you put those cards as dead cards, not flop cards

So it seems that my decision to fold was a bit on the weak side but not so much that I made a HUGE blunder.

SO I consider that an improvement. Last time I was so clearly wrong by folding it wasnt even funny. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Hattifnatt]

Here is the correct numbers:
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=As+...+5h%0D%0A6s+7s