looking for an honest answer

ok you make a living from betting on outcomes that the bookies make sure its hard to win on

If this is so than you have an edge that you know keeps you in profits, so your long time profits do not come from luck.

as with poker find an edge that can provide you with a steady win rate.

cards, rake, players, blinds, bad rngs etc are only an obsticle to sucessful profit.

Look for edges that dont involve how just the cards fall or what the best hands are.

obviously you are already good at this in some proven way.

I have been playing 1/2 cent limit for a couple months now, so I'll give you my take on it.

You will get beat by some lame hands, but just remember these players will stay in other hands with you and miss their draws a lot. You're going to win a lot more pots against these players than you lose against them.

Also, the players at these limits don't know to push flush draws and open ended straight draws. They don't look at pot odds. They are constantly making mistake, which adds up to money for you.

When they don't bet their made hands for fear of being beat, they are losing money which they could have got from you. On the other hand, if you bet your good hands, you are taking money from them.

Also, just make sure you play optimal hands at these limits and be patient. I know I often play too aggressively, trying to push people out of pots to steal them, but players at micro-limits usually won't fold. Use this to your advantage! Keep betting and they'll pay you off.

I do have losing sessions, but they more you play, your luck will even out. Just keep at it.

first, i'd like to thank all the respondents to this, well, plaint, to be generous, whining to be more pointed.

secondly, i wish i hadnt started this thread.

as to the TT thing, i have another post about TT and the tactics involved in their use. the number of times i've lost with this combination starts there and ends with the additional loses quoted this morning. i mean, i just cant believe im having such trouble with the damn things.

anyway, i greatly appreciate your kindness in offering guidance and direction.

tlt.

If you have 50k hands or so I'm willing to bet your losing your money alot faster then that rake would have time to take it. Therefore someone has to be winning it by playing better poker not cards. If you are a break even player then yes the rake would do you in but only after a large number of hands.

Don't know if this is going to help or not but it sounds like you are making the mistake I was until very recently.

So much is made of 'starting hands' in the books that people tend to read that I beleive new players get fooled into thinking they are more important than they are.

Of course it's important to play starting hands that give you a chance of winning. AA is great, TT is good 72o isn't. My problem was that as a begginer I had an expectation that I would win just because I had a good starting hand. It's important to re-evaluate your hand at every possible opportunity.

What was the texture of the flops on these TT 'bad beats' that you have encountered? Just because TT was ahead against K3o before the flop means nothing when you see AK3 land in the middle.

You posts are very articualte and I'm sorry if this is obvious to you. It just took me a while to stop expecting AA to win just because it's the best starting hand.

I also have chess background and it was hard understanding that, in poker, the best plays will loose some times. In chess you set a trap and watch villain fall into it and that's game. In poker he can fall in with both feet and still hit an out to take your money.

I'm very slowly learning that flop texture, position, table image, opponents style, stack sizes are all as important as the two cards I started the hand with.

Cheers

[OrianasDaad]

Here's an honest answer.

I am winning at the micro limits. I'm not crushing them, though. I don't even have a signifigant edge other than making maximum EV decisions mabye 85% of the time.

Despite your assertions that you understand EV and probablities...:
[ QUOTE ]
so you get the following algorithm: you play your premium hands; you LOSE your premium hands in the largest pots; there's a levy against your wins, called a rake; and you get the blinds as the most expensive of the imposts.


[/ QUOTE ]

Go over the 20 biggest pots you lost in PT. Do a simple EV calculation using the numbers the PT gives you for win percentages in the replayer on the turn.

It's easy to see that routinely being an 85% favorite on the turn is a big money-maker. If you aren't a big favorite in a hand, find out why. Leave your opponents' cards turned off.

Sometimes you will be behind the whole way, but if you are playing correctly, this is the exception and not the rule.

I'm not crushing the games, but I am beating both the rake and the blinds for a fair amount. Just by having better cards and recognizing when I'm beat (and the size of the pot doesn't justify chasing).

There's my honest answer. Now, take an honest look at the game you play. The EV calculations will tell you alot, and confirm for you that as long as there are players who play badly, there is money to be made in this game.

This fact is the same in sports/horse betting, right? It's the core concept of all gambling. You just have to wrap your head around it correctly.

[aargh57]

One of the things that strikes me is that he's saying people are claiming 15bb/100. Who are these people claiming this? I know I've seen people saying that but they're not the types of guys that post good advice and comments on these boards. Those types of guys are claiming 2-3 bb/100. In a 2/4 game that's only $8-$12 per 100. 4 tabling that's about $20 an hour. Hardly big bucks.

[Quicksilvre]

I suspect that he refers to no limit.

I would guess these are people who think that 1000 hands is an adequate sample. I just played 300 hands of .5/1 and left up $62.50 - Damn I'm good! 21BB/100 - Woohoo!!

[amoeba]

those are no limit winrates and it is possible although hard to achieve.