$650 - Diablo didn't know what I should do here... - Page 3

Simplistic · #21 10-23-2005, 01:31 PM

a) folding, hero currently has 30BB with 6 people to be eliminated before money, I think hero has to play a few more hands before he can successfully fold into the money.

b) calling, hero calls and button/SB/BB either pushes or calls as well. if SB button or SB pushes it's a clear call and if BB pushes it's a fold? I guess i'm not too familiar with satellite strategy but my thinking is if you win this hand regardless of who is in it, you're guaranteed a seat. if you lose the hand to all but the BB you're still in it and fighting. what's +EV at this point?

c) pushing over the top or re-raising to half your stack. marginal aces now fold and button/SB/BB have a very difficult time calling/pushing with worse than AK/AA/KK.
this puts decision to MP who has to either call or fold.

in this situation I most likely push.

adanthar · #22 10-23-2005, 01:32 PM

Yeah, I'd like to add that I wasn't paying that much attention to railbirding and didn't really know anybody's tendencies, but if you thought there was an above average chance this was a trap, you could open fold, too.

Calling is bad, though.

Yeti · #23 10-23-2005, 01:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What worries me about pushing is that the open raiser is short enough that he will likely stick the rest of his chips in with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

There had been lots of 3x, and lots of folding. Hardly any reraises or calls.

I really think he would do 3x here with AK. I think avg was 33k, but 21 was pretty healthy and in no danger yet.

Bigdaddydvo · #24 10-23-2005, 01:52 PM

QQ/KK/AA are all pushes here. I even fold AK.

Of all options, I think calling is worst.

Remember, in these satelite type situations where all the top prizes are the same, the "Gap" in the "Gap Concept" is MUCH MUCH wider. That's how we can fold JJ here, but QQ is a bit too good.

CardSharpCook · #25 10-23-2005, 02:22 PM

Pull the trigger. He'll probably fold. I mean think about it, is there any reason to believe he doesn't have JJ-22, A2s-AQs, AQo-A8o, KQ-KT, etc, etc, etc? AA/KK/AK make up a very small % of the hands that he open raises with, right? This is a SH table and he NEEDS to be stealing to keep up. Why are you so scared of monsters?

I don't get the Weak-Tightism that exists in Sats. Of course that may be why I've never won a sat.

LearnedfromTV · #26 10-23-2005, 02:45 PM

A question for adanthar and others: If he flips over xx and says "I'm going to call" (or equivalently, with these stacks you raise QQ, he goes allin and shows xx), do you call?

If xx =

1. Axo
2. Axs
3. AKo
4. AKs

My inclination is Yes, Yes, No, No. In general, when you are likely to walk to a seat by folding and making obvious steals, but not guaranteed, are you looking for 60/40 or better to call off a huge part of your stack? 65/35? Pair over pair?

How many chips (relative to average stack when the seats are given) would you have to have to make playing QQ here wrong, even if he flipped over AJ and you have to play for more than half your stack?

Jason Strasser · #27 10-23-2005, 04:22 PM

I think call, but im not sure, i really havent done my HW with regards to thinking about bubble situations on sats

cferejohn · #28 10-23-2005, 04:29 PM

You have a big hand and you have the guy who raised covered. I know this is a supersat, but you aren't *that* close to the money and I'd be surprised if you can just fold into it. I'd push, and frankly, I don't see how it is close.

#29 10-23-2005, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What worries me about pushing is that the open raiser is short enough that he will likely stick the rest of his chips in with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wont he also stick all his chips in with hands that we dominate?

Ulysses · #30 10-23-2005, 06:16 PM

13 get seats. About 20 left.

I think Yeti is about 6th or 7th place at this point. There are a couple of big stacks, then the rest of the top 10 all have 35-45k. There are maybe 4 players after that w/ about 20k. Then about 4 players w/ 13-15k. And two real shorties.