a river bluff raise - Page 3

Aces McGee · #21 10-23-2005, 12:52 AM

Hey Tip...that's a good thread.

I think the big difference is that in chief's hand, even if he is checkraised, he's got a million ways (okay, not a million, but jacks, tens, eights, and running clubs) to take the lead. In my hand, if I'm behind to a king or better(the most likely checkraising hand, in my opinion), the only way I'm catching up is by hitting my gutshot, or maybe running trips or two pair.

Having the button and/or getting a free turn is certainly nice, however, and I considered betting for that reason. But the preflop raise out of the blinds combined with the flop check really screamed monster to me, ace-king at a minimum (not saying that this play is wise, but it always seems to be a big hand when someone raises preflop and then checks the flop). I was really confident that a checkraise was coming, and I don't think it's particularly good for my hand.

If you think otherwise, I'm all ears.

-McGee

WillMagic · #22 10-23-2005, 01:58 AM

Your preflop limp is stretching. You might be able to get away with this on the button, and it would be totally fine if you were suited...but neither of these things are true, and it's a pretty clear fold.

I'm betting the flop.

And your river raise stinks to high heaven. The BB is folding here so rarely it is ridiculous. You aren't the only one that can see this pot is massive.

Will

Aces McGee · #23 10-23-2005, 12:24 PM

Hi Will

[ QUOTE ]
Your preflop limp is stretching.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want to get into a preflop discussion too much here, but as I said to newhizzle earlier, in most games I can make this limp profitably. If you don't want to take my word for it, well, if I was in the cutoff, instead of the hijack, then this limp is fine by SSHE standards. It may be close, but it's hardly [ QUOTE ]
a pretty clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ].

[ QUOTE ]
You might be able to get away with this on the button, and it would be totally fine if you were suited

[/ QUOTE ] I recognize that these would be more ideal conditions, but just because there's a better situation doesn't mean I should give up one that is still profitable.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
QTip made this suggestion, and I responded to him saying that I had considered it. I'm open to being convinced that I should, but someone has to tell me why.

[ QUOTE ]
And your river raise stinks to high heaven. The BB is folding here so rarely it is ridiculous. You aren't the only one that can see this pot is massive.

[/ QUOTE ]

The BB's play here is so strange that it's almost as if he's asking for a reason to fold.

Of course, this is the main reason I posted this hand.

Thanks for your response.

-McGee

QTip · #24 10-23-2005, 01:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Tip...that's a good thread.

I think the big difference is that in chief's hand, even if he is checkraised, he's got a million ways (okay, not a million, but jacks, tens, eights, and running clubs) to take the lead. In my hand, if I'm behind to a king or better(the most likely checkraising hand, in my opinion), the only way I'm catching up is by hitting my gutshot, or maybe running trips or two pair.

Having the button and/or getting a free turn is certainly nice, however, and I considered betting for that reason. But the preflop raise out of the blinds combined with the flop check really screamed monster to me, ace-king at a minimum (not saying that this play is wise, but it always seems to be a big hand when someone raises preflop and then checks the flop). I was really confident that a checkraise was coming, and I don't think it's particularly good for my hand.

If you think otherwise, I'm all ears.

-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]

I do agree that Chief's hand was much stronger, and there was more incentive to bet the flop. However, I think the concepts in that thread still apply here. Even though your hand is weaker than his was, you still have some decent potential. Given the flop has checked around to you, there's still a decent chance no one has a King, and your overcard outs my give you top pair.

I really think you're giving to much credit to the fact that the BB raised 6 limpers and checked the flop. There are many hands that even a tight player would raise there, not to mention the obvious ones that you'd like to see fold, AQo, AQs, ATs, or some mid pair. Checking the flop wiht a monster here would be a horrible play. Even if the BB had AK, he has no reason to think anyone will bet, let alone from late postion, and I think the majority of players are simply betting their hand at this point. If he does c/r, I think it normally means he has a hand he's not overly proud of and you're in a better situation than you think. You have the BB in a pretty good situation if he does have a holding he's not proud of as now has to act before seeing what a whole field is going to do with your flop bet. They are plenty of cards you want to fold that will have a redraw on you if you only hit a split pair, and as I already mentioned a series of hands that will have a bigger kicker than you if you catch. All this coupled with the chance for a free card, imo make taking a shot at this big pot a good play.

BigBrother · #25 10-23-2005, 02:26 PM

With no read on BB it seems like TPGK or better with an optimistic flop c/r and a wimpy check on the turn to see if anyone's gonna bet the flush. His river bet is for value since nobody bet the turn and he's not laying down to your raise.

If this worked for you then I guess I can see why you think QT is a profitable limp from MP3 in 3/6.