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#21
10-19-2005, 01:14 AM
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Re: understanding a bad flop call
[ QUOTE ]
And, for the more advanced math thinkers + players out there, here's a VERY tough question, which generally becomes more of an intuition guess in the course of play: If we can randomly distribute Villains hand range into sets (always gets stacked if TWP hits) and bluffs (either top pair or worse, things that will not get stacked if TWP hits), but those hands fire 1/2 pot bet on turn (so TWP wont see a free river vs marginal or bluff hand) what is the break even point between villain having a big hand in order to attempt to break him? [/ QUOTE ] So, I think no one wanted to undertake this task, pretty understandable. Working out these numbers can definately help your game though. I actually made a mistake in my question! Can anyone find it? Actually, thats kinda irrelevant, but the interesting thing is they dont EVER have to have a set, if they bet the turn, to make the call on the flop correct. Their turn bet yields enough implied odds, and when they call, it only pats the +EVness of the play even more. I'll make a better example sometime later. 
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#22
10-19-2005, 01:30 AM
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Re: understanding a bad flop call
If the villain is always going to fire 1/2 pot bet on the turn, and we are calling his raise on the flop with $65, our pot odds are like 2.3:1 ($65 into $151 pot).
If we stack him with a set, but he folds with everything else, won't he have to have a set at least sometime to make this a correct call? Improving to a straight on the turn is 5:1 with 8 outs.
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#23
10-19-2005, 02:02 AM
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Re: understanding a bad flop call
[ QUOTE ]
If the villain is always going to fire 1/2 pot bet on the turn, and we are calling his raise on the flop with $65, our pot odds are like 2.3:1 ($65 into $151 pot). If we stack him with a set, but he folds with everything else, won't he have to have a set at least sometime to make this a correct call? Improving to a straight on the turn is 5:1 with 8 outs. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but I had the assumption he fires a half pot bet on the turn no matter the holding, but he only calls w/ a set. So really, you're getting 108 (turn bet) + 65 (bet) + 151 (pot) : 65, which means effectively ... He never has to call the push for you to make enough. So that was my mistake! I should've made it like he only bets 70 (or a small number) but you still fold. I dunno. Blah.
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#24
10-19-2005, 02:14 AM
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Re: understanding a bad flop call
[ QUOTE ]
That, plus the possibility of taking it away on the turn, plus the possibility of breaking him if I hit, might make it close. But really, it was just tilt. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. Taking it away on the turn implies the possibility of losing even more money and it's probably an -EV-attempt against a tricky partial calling station. FWIW, I like every str8, apart from the flop call. But you already know it wasn't good.
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