$215: Bubble hand

[Exitonly]

alright i'm bored and decided to do some math for this...

Call

Based on:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.5890 % 25.62% 00.97% { 22+, A5s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, A9o+ }
Hand 2: 45.4925 % 44.68% 00.81% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 27.9185 % 27.63% 00.29% { 55 }</pre><hr />

26% of the time you'll go out in 4th = $0 = 0
46% of the time you'll go out in 3rd = $400= 180
28% of the time you'll have 3685
which w/ ICM = $693= 194


calling = $374
---

Fold

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.4385 % 38.35% 02.09% { 22+, A5s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, A9o+ }
Hand 2: 59.5615 % 57.48% 02.09% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ } </pre><hr />

60% of the time you'll be in 3rd w/ 940
which w/ ICM = $506 = 303

40% of the time you'll be in 4th w/ 940
which w/ ICM = $259 = 103

folding = $406

-----


So Folding is $32 more profitable? That's not what i wanted to see, so that makes me want to say i made a mistake.. maybe my ranges were off. Or maybe i screwed up, or maybe folding just is better.


Any thoughts?


edit: Just realized ICM is assuming skill is equal right? So since you should be able to operate better w/ a larger stack, that should boost calling some... maybe not though, like i said earlier, noob in this forum.

[pooh74]

I said "fold" originally but thought it was close. The thing with your math is that the ranges might even be wider for BOTH hands (according to OP). When you throw in those Ax, Kx, Qx, where x is 5 or less, the numbers will swing a great deal. I still think its a fold, but with the reads and the blinds etc... it is very close. Good post.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
edit: Just realized ICM is assuming skill is equal right? So since you should be able to operate better w/ a larger stack, that should boost calling some... maybe not though, like i said earlier, noob in this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Skill is negated at this point. IMO, it is NO reason at this stage of the SNG to pass up a +$EV opportnity. (note i said "cash" ev)

[Apathy]

very nice post Exit but your ranges are pretty off.


In fact the NEITHER of the actual hands the held in this instance is in EITHER of those ranges.

[Exitonly]

whoops, i guess i give guy stoo much credit, well it wouldn't take much to swing that to a call being right, what ranges would you put the two guys on?

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
whoops, i guess i give guy stoo much credit, well it wouldn't take much to swing that to a call being right, what ranges would you put the two guys on?

[/ QUOTE ]
First guy I'd say any A,K and Q, any connector above 45 and any two gapper or three gapper above 58 or so.

Second guy something like any ace any pair K9+ high suited connectors like 89+ and any two face cards.

I call, and I think its correct

[raptor517]

apathy, i really cant believe this thread didnt get more attention. i completely missed it, but i got bored and started browsing through the 0395809235923 posts i missed. cmon man, i know u called this. you had to call this. you both lose to the big stack u still get third. you fold big stack might win great, you woulda got third anyway. you fold the pusher wins you are half stacked to everyone else. oops. yea, this ones a call, and whoever said its not sucks at life. (beef) holla

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
apathy, i really cant believe this thread didnt get more attention. i completely missed it, but i got bored and started browsing through the 0395809235923 posts i missed. cmon man, i know u called this. you had to call this. you both lose to the big stack u still get third. you fold big stack might win great, you woulda got third anyway. you fold the pusher wins you are half stacked to everyone else. oops. yea, this ones a call, and whoever said its not sucks at life. (beef) holla

[/ QUOTE ]

What if OP has t1000 and is short... does this become a fold?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
apathy, i really cant believe this thread didnt get more attention. i completely missed it, but i got bored and started browsing through the 0395809235923 posts i missed. cmon man, i know u called this. you had to call this. you both lose to the big stack u still get third. you fold big stack might win great, you woulda got third anyway. you fold the pusher wins you are half stacked to everyone else. oops. yea, this ones a call, and whoever said its not sucks at life. (beef) holla

[/ QUOTE ]

I didnt see it as THAT clear cut. But, your post made me look at this hand again and I just realized, and am embarrassed to admit, that OP was BB posting 300. I think that makes this a call too. (I would stand by "fold" if OP was not BB, but that is a moot point given he was not)

But raptor, I still have no idea how you knew I sucked at life. I mean, poker is one thing.