Misplayed Rockets anytime? 30/60 Party

[JJNJustin]

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If you think KK/QQ are equally likely on the turn, then the river being a Q lessens the combinatoric probability that his hand is QQ. If you think that it doesn't matter, then what would you say if the turn and river were both Q's? Would you still say that QQ was as likely as KK? I'm wondering if the river is a bet/call or a bet/fold.

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I replugged the numbers and found that you will get a call 80% out of KK, AQ, and AJ, and a check raise 20% out of QQ. Out of five hands, you will be up 2 bets, or average .4 bet per hand. This is assuming you think there is a reasonable chance of him having AQ or AJ. If you rule out these two hands, and assume he holds QQ or KK only, then he will hold KK two times to one. You will win 1 bet from KK 2 times, and lose 2 bets to QQQ once, making this a break even bet.

man am I bored tonight
-J

[baronzeus]

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If you think KK/QQ are equally likely on the turn, then the river being a Q lessens the combinatoric probability that his hand is QQ. If you think that it doesn't matter, then what would you say if the turn and river were both Q's? Would you still say that QQ was as likely as KK? I'm wondering if the river is a bet/call or a bet/fold.

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I replugged the numbers and found that you will get a call 80% out of KK, AQ, and AJ, and a check raise 20% out of QQ. Out of five hands, you will be up 2 bets, or average .4 bet per hand. This is assuming you think there is a reasonable chance of him having AQ or AJ. If you rule out these two hands, and assume he holds QQ or KK only, then he will hold KK two times to one. You will win 1 bet from KK 2 times, and lose 2 bets to QQQ once, making this a break even bet.

man am I bored tonight
-J

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thats unless you fold to a raise. folding to a raise makes the bet +++++++++EV

[veganmav]

results please?

[daryn]

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give a man a high pocket pair over the board and he thinks he's invincable. lol.

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i don't think you are quite good enough to post in this forum. maybe this will help you out: here

[PTjvs]

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thats unless you fold to a raise. folding to a raise makes the bet +++++++++EV

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I'm not good enough to post in this forum either, but do you guys really advocate folding to a raise here?

[BarronVangorToth]

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thats unless you fold to a raise. folding to a raise makes the bet +++++++++EV

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Unless he gets you to fold to his CR with his AQ / KK because he knows you like to make "quality laydowns" / you live in Las Vegas.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[Subfallen]

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Everything looks fine except for the river bet. You played your hand well up until the river. With the SB 3 betting you before the flop and willing to 3 bet the flop, yet doesnt reraise you on the turn you can rule out JJJ, so he probably has QQ or KK. I would say 50/50. So when the Q falls on the river, you have to consider what % of the time you will be called and what % of the time you will be check raised with QQQ. 50% you will win a bet from KK, but 50% of the time you will be check raised with QQQ, in which you will have to call and lose 2 bets, for a net loss of 1 bet every time. So even though it looks like an even money bet or better, the possbility of being check raised with QQQ makes betting the river wrong. If the river card were anything other than a K or Q or a spade I probably would have bet. Every other thing you did in the hand was aggressive and well played.

-J

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Just stop posting. Seriously. If you don't realize that the Q hitting the river halves the # of QQ combinations, just stop.

[DcifrThs]

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even if you include the possibility that he may hold something like a KJ, AJ, or AQ and might call, a check still might be the better play: for example, if you deduce that he holds KK 1/3 time, QQ 1/3 time, and possibly KJ AJ or AQs the other 1/3 of the time, now you win 1 bet two out of three times, but lose two bets once for a net profit of zero (0) bets. And note it is slightly statistically less probably for him to hold AQ or AJ, since you hold two aces.

-J

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6*1/3+6*1/3+12*1/9+6*1/9+1*1/9=6.11

now what hands does hero NOT beat that check and call the river?? anybody?? 'cause i can't think of one so i see the hands that call a river bet as 100%...

EDIT: forgot a Q hit the board and that now beats him so 3 possiblities for QQ so its 25 of the above mentioned hands to 3 of the ones that beat hero so its ALMOST 100% [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ... bet the river.

bet river
Barron

[Klepton]

this is perfect.

[JJNJustin]

Please post the conclusion to this hand.
Since he just called, I put him on kings and you won. What part, exactly, did you misplay?

-J