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#21
10-03-2005, 11:15 PM
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Re: Is folding too weak/tight?
[ QUOTE ]
I agree that raising was the wrong play, it was late and wasn't the best decison but I guess my real question is... is it really that weak/tight to fold 22 in the spot? If i get called at BEST i'm 50/50 otherwise i'm 80/20 dog. Is 12 bb too low where you should be happy to get it in 50/50? What if you have 15x bb? do you still push here? 20? If you just raise and are put all in then what? Just asking hypothetical situations here because I dont seem to play small pp's well. [/ QUOTE ] I think M is more important than BB. I'm not sure what the antes are at this point but I figure any reasonable ante puts your M below 5 so push is push. The thing is, just because you've been open pushing a lot doesn't mean people are going to spite call you with worse hands for a significant chunk of their stack. Do not underestimate the value of folding equity! You are only 50-50 if called; your FE (which is significant, since either blind would have to call off about 2/3 of his stack to call you) gives the play a higher positive expectation than that. 
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#22
10-03-2005, 11:23 PM
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Re: Is folding too weak/tight?
I could find a fold here. Seems like you can find a better spot than 50/50 or possibly 20/80 here. Plus the third push in a row tends to get called a lot.
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#23
10-04-2005, 12:19 AM
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Re: Is folding too weak/tight?
[ QUOTE ]
I could find a fold here. Seems like you can find a better spot than 50/50 or possibly 20/80 here. Plus the third push in a row tends to get called a lot. [/ QUOTE ] I think a more accurate thing to say is that "the third push in a row expands your opponents' calling ranges." What you should keep in mind is that -your opponents would still have to call off 60% of their stacks to pick you off. Most players don't want to do that without a pretty solid holding. -you have only two opponents, and there's still a very good chance neither one has a hand in their calling range. Figure a calling range, your equity against it, and what the chances are opponent has a hand to call you. I think you'll find the move is +EV, though I don't have the means or inclination to do the exact math.
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#24
10-04-2005, 01:55 AM
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Re: Is folding too weak/tight?
I think on an individual basis, the hand is +EV, but the chance of getting into a coinflip and busting out of the whole tourney still isn't worth it to me. I just think you can find a better spot than this.
C-Dog
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#25
10-04-2005, 02:29 AM
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Re: Is folding too weak/tight?
[ QUOTE ]
I think on an individual basis, the hand is +EV, but the chance of getting into a coinflip and busting out of the whole tourney still isn't worth it to me. I just think you can find a better spot than this. C-Dog [/ QUOTE ] This is probably one of the most common misconceptions on 2+2. Shortstacked with an M of 5, you should love a +EV chance to double up, or even a neutral EV chance. The idea is to double yourself into a competitive position now, not play the game of trying to steal the blinds once per orbit while you wait for the AA fairy to arrive. Once you have a competitive stack you can be choosier about picking your spots, but with a short stack your only goal should be to make it competitive as soon as possible. Finally, you're not exactly calling an all-in here. Your chance of busting on this hand is probably 15% tops. Sure, you are putting all your chips at risk, but that's going to happen whenever you raise. First to act, on the button, with a pocket pair, is not a situation you can just pull out of your hat whenever you need it.
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