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#21
10-04-2005, 07:51 AM
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Re: Set meets resistance in huge pot.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Can anybody find a fold? [/ QUOTE ] Fold the flop. I know that 17-to-1 looks great but, -you're not closing the action -there's no way that you've actually got 2 full outs -there's a good chance that hitting your set will make a second best hand [/ QUOTE ] I called the flop with not only my 2 outs, but with my backdoor straight draw outs. If that 8 and 9 wasn't out there, I'd be folding it. I still call this flop. [/ QUOTE ] Your set outs put three to a straight on the board against 8 opponents. Even if you treat your 2 outs as completely clean and include the backdoor straight draw (about 1.5 outs) you need 12.5:1. Sure, you're getting 17:1 immediately, but if it's raised behind you (which, let's face it, is pretty likely in this huge pot) you'll only be getting 11:1 or so. And this is the best case scenario remember. 
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#22
10-04-2005, 08:20 AM
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Re: Set meets resistance in huge pot.
Problem with the flop call is you were not in a good position to make it.
True, you had better than 11-1 odds to call 1 bet (hoping for a 7 on the turn) but a raise behind you seemed pretty likely to happen - and it did. Add to that the fact that the 7 could give someone a straight (or at least a straight draw), this probably means 11-1 isn't even enough.
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#24
10-04-2005, 09:06 AM
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Re: Set meets resistance in huge pot.
what's wrong with chucking this on the flop?
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#25
10-04-2005, 11:17 AM
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Re: Set meets resistance in huge pot.
Folding on the flop makes sense. You're up against two overcards and a 4 flush.
You need to hit your set on the flop or fold with hands like these when overcards flop.
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#26
10-04-2005, 12:03 PM
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Re: Set meets resistance in huge pot.
[ QUOTE ]
I think making folds like this are what determine the winners from the big winners. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with your statement. But I think we probably disagree on which group folding puts you into. 40BBs is 2000 hands worth of profit. Folding a set in a 40BB pot for 1 bet is insane.
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#27
10-04-2005, 12:12 PM
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Re: Set meets resistance in huge pot.
[ QUOTE ]
Your set outs put three to a straight on the board against 8 opponents. Even if you treat your 2 outs as completely clean and include the backdoor straight draw (about 1.5 outs) you need 12.5:1. Sure, you're getting 17:1 immediately, but if it's raised behind you (which, let's face it, is pretty likely in this huge pot) you'll only be getting 11:1 or so. And this is the best case scenario remember. [/ QUOTE ] You can't give yourself 2 full outs for your 7. And you especially can't give yourself 1.5 full outs for the BDSD - almost half the time you make your straight a possible flush will be on board, and 1/3 of the time you make your straight someone with a lone Q is beating you. On top of that, drawing one card to a BDSD has reverse implied odds since you'll be forced to put in bets on the flop and turn but you won't be able to collect much on the river. Given the number of players in the hand, hero is being optimistic if he gives himself 2 full outs.
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