15/30 KK

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how the ace changes much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this and think that, given the probability that one of your opponents does not hold an ace, you probably have effective odds for a call down. And in what Party 15 game does a flop 3-bet mean better than top pair? I would estimate it to mean that about 10% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
you misread the action, we are not talking about a 3bet here, we are talking about a check/3bet for value play. There is a big difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, there is a difference. But I don't think there is a reasonable range of hands for EP1 that shows our Hero is anywhere near a 7:1 dog here (on the Turn). Easy call down IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
against the typical opponent this is an easy fold imo. This action will almost always mean a set. Against a loose agg or crazy guy this is an easy call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think it is reasonably likely a set would c/r this turn to charge EP2 (who appears to be on a draw) the maximum? This factor is what swings me to a call down.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I mostly posted this for the comfort in knowing I made the right play.

I was torn on the turn; I thought about folding, calling and raising for a free showdown. I folded. EP1 showed down Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and E2 showed down JJ.

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Folding the turn is definitely the right play with no reads, I also think you should not of capped the flop, as a check 3 bet on this board usually spells doom. The minute i read that the guy checked 3 bet the flop I put him on a set, as I dont think most players would do this with J9 or 97 against 2 opponents out of position. If there was a flush draw on the flop, then I think you should call down since it may be possible that the villain has a 12 outer or more, flush draw + straight draw or flush draw and a pair type hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Westley, I'm usually a fan of your posts, but I really disagree with you here. I see the check/3bet with TPWK often in this game. In fact, I'm calling the flop 3bet and raising the turn (provided it isn't an ace). As it is (4bet/ace turn/opponent leads out, next guy calls), I am folding here. The lead out on the ace turn almost seems like he wants you to believe your ace is good. I won't believe him if I am the only one in the pot, but as is, I can fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]
If this type of play is happening often than my analysis is flawed, and the hero will be folding too many hands in big pots. From my own experience, I dont see the check/3bet for value play very often, and when I do see it, it is almost always a set, and sometimes two pair, that is when there is no flush draw on the flop. Only a total lag would 3 bet in this situation with anything else. When you say that you are going to call the flop with the intention of raising the turn, you are basically saying that there is a decent chance that this person is a lag based on the avg distribution of players in this particular game.(And your analysis could easily be correct) However, then Folding the turn once the ace hits is contradictory. If a person is lag enough to 3 bet the flop for value with a hand that cant beat an overpair, than he is certainly lag enough the bet the turn on the ace card with that same weak holding. If I approached the hand the way you did, I would raise the turn despite the ace, as this pot is still quite large and theres a decent enough chance that I may still be best, so I would want to protect my hand. My intentions on the river would be to check for a free showdown. So if I approach the hand my way, I am folding the turn, and if i approach the hand your way I am raising the turn, If I'm heads up I would have no problem just calling down. Although I still believe folding the turn is right against the typical opponent, I may be wrong, but Im also convinced that if you still think theres a decent chance you have the best hand on the flop, folding the turn becuz the ace hit is also wrong.

Please Ignore all posts made by me in this thread except this one. I totally misread the flop action. I thought that the player who checked/3bet the flop was the player directly on the hero's right. Given the fact that the player who 3 bet the flop is doing so without UTG+2 commited, this looks more like an elimination play, so the villain could easily just have top pair here. Now I think if the hero caps and the villain donks the turn on the ace card, the hero is correct to fold with no read. But if the Hero just called the flop with the intention to raise the turn, the hero cannot fold then since the villain was probably going to bet the turn no matter what card hit, then the hero should just call down in this large pot since there is nobody behind him to eliminate. I apologize for butchering this hand so badly.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how the ace changes much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I still dont know if I could fold here, even though I usually do w/ this kind of action. To me it looks like the guy has T8, 22 or overplayed top pair (which was action my first thought. Id think 88, TT raise preflop but I play mostly short tables). If he has T8...u have 8 possible outs. (Im not worried about the Ace, if he was had AT then situation sucks big time...but I doubt it.)

Like I said, most of the time I can fold here and be done w/ it, but I dont think I could here.