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#1
09-30-2005, 09:09 AM
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Re: Hand I played terribly
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i want it 5+ handed for 2 bets, not 1 stealthcow- [/ QUOTE ] Huh? Why? [/ QUOTE ] So you are getting a pot size equivelent to the odds of making a set. TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I don't think five players is enough. [/ QUOTE ] Think implied.... TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 
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#2
09-30-2005, 10:07 AM
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Re: Hand I played terribly
[ QUOTE ]
So you are getting a pot size equivelent to the odds of making a set. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? Odds of making a set are 7.5-1. You are only getting 'set value' from a raise if there are more than 7.5 people in the hand. 88 isn't going to win UI against a lot of players so the best way to play 88 multiway is to see the flop as cheaply as possible. 88 is an excellent hand 2- or 3-way and often the best PF play is to raise w/ 88 if you think you can limit your opponents. Here, with 2 limpers already in and lots of people left to act, raising is not +EV.
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#3
09-30-2005, 11:10 AM
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Re: Hand I played terribly
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So you are getting a pot size equivalent to the odds of making a set. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? Odds of making a set are 7.5-1. You are only getting 'set value' from a raise if there are more than 7.5 people in the hand. 88 is not going to win UI against a lot of players so the best way to play 88 multiway is to see the flop as cheaply as possible. 88 is an excellent hand 2- or 3-way and often the best PF play is to raise w/ 88 if you think you can limit your opponents. Here, with 2 limpers already in and lots of people left to act, raising is not +EV. [/ QUOTE ] The second 1/2 of your statement is correct (don’t raise with 88 in this hand), but it's perfectly fine to raise with 88 pre-flop when you have 5+ players in the pot, because when the hero does flop a set of eights he will usually get that extra 2.5 bets that are implied nearly 100% of the time. This concept is shown is Small Stakes Hold’em’s “loose” charts… Ed recommends raising with 88 from late position in most pots. If you have 5 limpers to you, this is an excellent time to pop the field with a raise. Lets get back on track, this is NOT what Justin A's hand is about, there are much more interesting things to discuss. TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
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#5
09-30-2005, 10:29 AM
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Re: Hand I played terribly
Preflop I don't know if I would call or raise. It's close. On the flop I like the bet, hoping the pf raiser will thin the field with a raise. I will go to war on the flop and see what develops on the turn.
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#6
09-30-2005, 12:04 PM
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Re: Hand I played terribly
I 3 bet flop in a second to get a better picture of were im at and because I am most likely ahead and you have to charge them to try to catch, the raiser has a wide range most of which your ahead of but i am concerned about the cold caller, which could have u beat as often as he's chasing, so 3 bet to charge him/ define his hand
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#7
09-30-2005, 12:22 PM
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Re: Hand I played terribly
Re: River
On the river, we receive 6.1:1 on a raise. To justify raising, 1/7.1 times we have to satisfy the parlay that UTG has a worse hand than 88 and MP2 folds. Lets call the probability that UTG has a worse hand P(A) and MP2 folds P(B). If P(A)*P(B)>1/7.1, then EV>0. Plugging in some numbers: If P(A)=.376 and P(B)=.376, then EV>0. If P(A)=.5, then we need P(B)>.28 for EV>0. If P(A)=.25, then we need P(B)>.56 for EV>0. I don't know. It still looks close to me. I don't think I would raise in the heat of battle. MP2's WtSD over a decent sample size could swing my decision.
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#8
09-30-2005, 02:45 PM
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Re: Hand I played terribly
[ QUOTE ]
Re: River On the river, we receive 6.1:1 on a raise. To justify raising, 1/7.1 times we have to satisfy the parlay that UTG has a worse hand than 88 and MP2 folds. Lets call the probability that UTG has a worse hand P(A) and MP2 folds P(B). If P(A)*P(B)>1/7.1, then EV>0. Plugging in some numbers: If P(A)=.376 and P(B)=.376, then EV>0. If P(A)=.5, then we need P(B)>.28 for EV>0. If P(A)=.25, then we need P(B)>.56 for EV>0. I don't know. It still looks close to me. I don't think I would raise in the heat of battle. MP2's WtSD over a decent sample size could swing my decision. [/ QUOTE ] Jeff thanks for saving me the trouble, this is perfect. If I had to guess I'd say that P(A) is about 40%. So that means I need to get MP2 to fold more than 35% of the time that he has me beat. I think the way the hand played out and based on my read of MP2, we easily satisfy this with a raise. I think he folds here > 50% of the time. Edit/ This really comes down to reads on each player after we see the math that Jeff did. The read I'm fairly sure of is that MP2 will fold most hands that beat mine here. I'm willing to hear other opinions on the read of the unknown UTG. At the time I just felt like my hand was better than his a good portion of the time.
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#9
09-30-2005, 05:31 PM
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Re: Hand I played terribly
[ QUOTE ]
I think he folds here > 50% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] I'm still having a hard time understanding where you come up with this number? What makes you think MP2 would fold an overpair here? What do you think he puts you on that he's not beating?
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#10
09-30-2005, 05:54 PM
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Re: Hand I played terribly
The fact that MP2 has position on us is very important here. Because of this, I would not 3-bet the flop. He most likely has a bigger pair. UTG's turn bet is VERY strange. It could be 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but I'm guessing it's a strong hand. I think it's a pretty bad play, considering he could have checked and one of you almost certainly would have bet. Regardless, I think UTG has at least a 5 and maybe more. You have shown strength, but he doesn't care. I would fold the turn and watch MP2 call down with his QQ.
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