bet/fold vs check/call on the river

[meanjean]

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Since you asked for a clear-cut example, isn't the "Clarkmeister Theorem" a perfect instance of bet/fold on the river?

Jim

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I don't know this theorum

[imported_Jim C]

Here it is, as described by W. Deranged:

Clarkmeister's Theorem: When playing a heads-up pot out-of-position, always lead the river if the river makes four-to-a-flush.

The idea--

If you have a big flush, it's obviously a value bet.

If you don't have a big flush:

1. Villain may fold a better, non-flush hand or a baby flush fearing a big flush.

2. Villain may call with a worse hand thinking you're full of it (it's one of those weird situations where there are both value-bet and bluff-bet reasons to bet).

3. You can easily fold to a raise.

4. You don't allow yourself to get bluffed out of pots when you do have the best hand (particularly as many will automatically bet the scare card if you check).

I (Jim) would add that this assumes a reasonable, thinking opponent. I've seen Party Poker fish raise and re-raise here with only a 5 or 6 of trump.

Anyhow, I think this is an excellent use of bet/fold.

Jim

[Judi]

[ QUOTE ]
Here it is, as described by W. Deranged:

Clarkmeister's Theorem: When playing a heads-up pot out-of-position, always lead the river if the river makes four-to-a-flush.

The idea--

If you have a big flush, it's obviously a value bet.

If you don't have a big flush:

1. Villain may fold a better, non-flush hand or a baby flush fearing a big flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

What kind of person would fold for 1 bet in a 10BB pot, when they know you are capable of this move?

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2. Villain may call with a worse hand thinking you're full of it (it's one of those weird situations where there are both value-bet and bluff-bet reasons to bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

So, he'll fold a better hand or small flush, but call with a worse hand......

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3. You can easily fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can, as you're bluffing with what you think is the worse hand. Me, I'm ck/calling in case villain bet, thinking I'll muck.

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4. You don't allow yourself to get bluffed out of pots when you do have the best hand (particularly as many will automatically bet the scare card if you check).

[/ QUOTE ]

Neither do I.


[ QUOTE ]
I (Jim) would add that this assumes a reasonable, thinking opponent. I've seen Party Poker fish raise and re-raise here with only a 5 or 6 of trump.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay. So, we need to find ourselves in this position, against a player, who will lay down a better hand, thinking we have the flush, or a player who will call with a worse hand, or a "fish" who will raise with small trump cards, when we have none. Or....should we just ck/fold to the "fish" if we know he wouldn't bet without the trump? Or, should we bet into him in case he doesn't have trump but will call with a worse hand, thinking we are full of it, or would lay down a better hand cause he doesn't think we are full of it?
And......we know all this while playing how many tables at once?



[ QUOTE ]
Anyhow, I think this is an excellent use of bet/fold.

Jim

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I can see that you do.

[jba]

Judi:

the point of the clarkmeister is that you are usually behind, so adjust your mind to accept that fact that we are going to lose money on the river bets (whether check/calling or bet/calling or bet/folding). There are four cards to a flush out there, and our opponent is still hanging out, and in these type situations you tend to lose more than you win. Our goal is to lose the least when we're behind and win the most when we are ahead.

here's a simple example:

hero is BB with QJ
some folds, villain button raises, hero calls.

flop [4sb] QhJs2h
hero checks, villain bets, hero raises, villain calls.

turn [4bb] 7h
hero bets, villain calls

river [6bb] 5h


now let's say we have a decent read on villain's play, and we have a fairly accurate range that he's got:

a) a strong flush - A or K high
b) a weak flush
c) some made hand worse than yours: AJ, KJ, QT, KQ, 77, etc.
d) some POS that he isn't going to spend one more chip on

if you check/call, you are usually going to end up losing 1 bet to groups a and b, and winning nothing.

if you bet/call, you are usually going to end up losing 2 bets to group a (he'll raise you), 1 bet to group b, and you win 1 bet from group c.

group d is always irrelevant.

so if we throw some numbers in and say his hand range consists of 10% group A, 70% group b, and 20% group c, our EV looks like:

EV(check) = .1*-1 + .7*-1= -8
EV(bet) = .1*.2 + .7*-1 + .2*+1 = -0.48

as you can see betting is clearly best, given the particulars. even though you are probably going to lose (4:1 underdog in fact), it is correct to bet.

some things to look for in an opponent:
- he isn't so aggressive that he will try to steal the pot with his trash hands when you check to him on the river. In this case you may win enough from group d using the check/call line to make this line favorable.
- he tends to play a bit scared on scary boards without the nuts. If your opponent will raise you with a J high flush on the river, his group A will be significantly larger.

[Piers]

I always though Bet Fold was a possable improvemnt on Bet Call.