Is the stock market +EV?

no what i meant is people are stuffing their money into 401k's expecting to millionaires be 20 yrs later with 12% returns when its unlikely that its gonna happen.

[Officer Farva]

dude we're up 38 million, but we've paid 16 in commissions. yes we do need a new broker. my point is that if you subtract the profit of the sell side banks, the market loses money, just like in poker. don't know why you have to be such as hardass, but if you feel better about yourself now, im happy for you. better to tilt here than at the tables

[Officer Farva]

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no what i meant is people are stuffing their money into 401k's expecting to millionaires be 20 yrs later with 12% returns when its unlikely that its gonna happen.

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people stuff money into 401k because your basically getting a 30% deposit bonus, to use a poker analogy. even if the 401k underperforms your mystery strategy by 5-10%, the 401k wins after a certain period of time.

if you paid 16 you should def be able to negotiate a better rate(if your currently not getting a good rate), especially if your volume has been increasing

yes that is the only reason i dipped into a 401k when i used to work but there are plenty putting in way over their company match

[ChipWrecked]

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I personally think the days of buy and hold are gone.

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I think you know better! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

There are simply far too many people that don't know any better than to just throw $$$ into their 401K without any thought at all.

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Is buy and hold the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund a sucker bet?

[squiffy]

Lets say there is a village with population 2 people and 2 coconut trees. Each day the two people pick 1 coconut. So their wealth is 2 coconuts per day.

Lets say over time, they have 8 kids, so now there are 10 people. And those people have planted 8 more trees, so they have 10 trees. And each person is now an adult who picks one coconut a day.

Now their wealth is 10 coconuts per day.

Let's say one invents a machine that helps pick coconuts faster. Or say one invents special boots with cletes that make it easier to climb coconut trees to pick coconuts. So now each person can pick 2 coconuts per day.

Suddenly their wealth is 20 coconuts per day.

And let's say they invent guns that they can use to capture a neighboring village and steal another 10 coconuts per day from the neighboring village of 10 people.

Now their wealth is 30 coconuts per day.

In theory, over time, as population and productivity increase, you can through education, technological advances, stable government, a stable currency, favorable business laws and organization, an efficient transportation system (land, sea, and air) and a strong national defense that guarantees peace or allow you to conquer more resources and land -- help to increase the per capital wealth of the nation.

The stock market is a reflection of the profitability of the major companies of that nation.

So can companies grow over time and increase their profitability and productivity and wealth generation over time?

Not all situations are zero sum. And not all situations are identical to say a card game or a winner loser scenario.

Sometimes an economic transaction or trade can be win-win, with both parties trading something of little value to them for something of tremendous value to them.

[Sniper]

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The Stock Market is -EV for all intents and purposes. Why, the sell side rake: comissions.

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Commission costs are negligable when compared to the added wealth created by the market [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

In the market, it is theoretically possible for ALL participants to win!

[Officer Farva]

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yes that is the only reason i dipped into a 401k when i used to work but there are plenty putting in way over their company match

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I'm actually refering to the tax free nature of the 401k investment. I didn't make that clear.

now...yes