Valuebetting queen high

[krishanleong]

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He has position.

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Right you are. Like you say, still just check it through. How much would it suck to get raised?

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In this hand, it looks like it sucked about 40$. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Krishan

[kidcolin]

Is this really a 'value' bet? Are you getting called by a worse hand more than half the time? I don't think so. Add in the times you decide to pay off a raise, and this stinks. Especially 3-handed? Man I hate this bet.

[Jeff W]

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Is this really a 'value' bet? Are you getting called by a worse hand more than half the time? I don't think so. Add in the times you decide to pay off a raise, and this stinks. Especially 3-handed? Man I hate this bet.

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My feelings exactly.

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Is this really a 'value' bet? Are you getting called by a worse hand more than half the time? I don't think so. Add in the times you decide to pay off a raise, and this stinks. Especially 3-handed? Man I hate this bet.

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You don't need half the time, you just need to get called more times than you're losing. Keep in mind they will both fold around 80% of the time. So for 80%, EV will be neutral on this bet.

[Jeff W]

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You don't need half the time, you just need to get called more times than you're losing.

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If you can fold to the check-raise, you have to be ahead 1/y times you are called where y is 2 or 3 depending on how many callers you get. y is almost always going to be 2 in this case.

However, sometimes you get checkraise bluffed or the threat of a c/r bluff leads you to call a checkraise from a better hand. Therefore, you need to be ahead more than 50% of the time when called. I don't understand where you got that 80% figure from.

[krishanleong]

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Is this really a 'value' bet? Are you getting called by a worse hand more than half the time? I don't think so. Add in the times you decide to pay off a raise, and this stinks. Especially 3-handed? Man I hate this bet.

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You don't need half the time, you just need to get called more times than you're losing. Keep in mind they will both fold around 80% of the time. So for 80%, EV will be neutral on this bet.

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You are missing something fundamental. We know 80% of the time it's EV neutral. The remaining 20% of the time, you need to be ahead 55% when CALLED.

Krishan

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Therefore, you need to be ahead more than 50% of the time when called.

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This is true. We're basically saying the same thing.

I was just looking at every possible player action. Most (80% as a rough guess) of the times they will fold when we are winning.

[krishanleong]

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I was just looking at every possible player action. Most (80% as a rough guess) of the times they will fold when we are winning.

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But what's the point? It's not important that Villians fold a lot. What's important is that when you are called, you need to be ahead a lot more than you are going to be ahead on this board.

Krishan

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I was just looking at every possible player action. Most (80% as a rough guess) of the times they will fold when we are winning.

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But what's the point? It's not important that Villians fold a lot. What's important is that when you are called, you need to be ahead a lot more than you are going to be ahead on this board.

Krishan

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Agreed. I definitely wasn't advocating a value bet.

Can you explain the 55% as opposed to anything over 50%?

[Jeff W]

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Can you explain the 55% as opposed to anything over 50%?

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You get bluff checkraised sometimes.