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#21
09-24-2005, 09:43 PM
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Re: jason_t v. jgorham #1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] very easy bet, do you have any reason to think he has a queen? [/ QUOTE ] The question that you're not thinking about in this thread is "what happens if he doesn't have a queen". [/ QUOTE ] well i certainly dont want to giva a free card to an ace or something like 99, if he raises, i assume he is aggressive and knows that jason is a nit, so id probly call down 
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#22
09-24-2005, 09:50 PM
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Re: jason_t v. jgorham #1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] very easy bet, do you have any reason to think he has a queen? [/ QUOTE ] The question that you're not thinking about in this thread is "what happens if he doesn't have a queen". [/ QUOTE ] well i certainly dont want to giva a free card to an ace or something like 99, if he raises, i assume he is aggressive and knows that jason is a nit, so id probly call down [/ QUOTE ] A- while it's fun to call jason a nit, it should be clear that it wasn't in reference to his playing style. An ace has 3 outs, 99 has 2. You're really worried about giving them a free card? The point is that by checking the turn you're going to be able to get bets from them on the river that you couldn't otherwise.
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#23
09-24-2005, 09:54 PM
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Re: jason_t v. jgorham #1
Entity is dead on here. Check behind and then see what happens on the river. Why?
1) He will probably just fold if you bet. If you check though, he might be inclined to call on the river. As an aside, he might bluff the river as well (though he probably shouldn't). 2) There is a decent chance that he has a queen here when he calls a bet on a Q74r flop. The board is totally drawless when you compare it to his range of hands (I don't think he will open raise 65s very often). If we are giving him a free card here, he is almost always drawing to just 2 or 3 outs. 3) There isn't a good chance that he has a pocket pair that will call down. If he had 88 or 99 he probably would have donked the turn when the 2nd queen fell to prevent giving a free one to AJ or AT or KJ or whatever. Imo the chance that he has a pocket pair goes down quite a bit when he checks here. Therefore he will oftentimes be in a spot where he either has the goods or has a hand that ins't going to call again but might bluff or call a river bet when we check behind. Brad The best time to bet is when you will not get any action from a worse hand on the river. So if he will check/fold AT on the riv, you should bet now to prevent him from getting a free 3 outs. If however he will call with that hand on the river UI if we check, we should check since we will get paid off ~93% of the time and get outdrawn just about ~7% of the time. This is a good line in a smallish pot. If the pot were 20 BB we would like for him to fold that AT.
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#24
09-24-2005, 10:47 PM
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Re: jason_t v. jgorham #1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] very easy bet, do you have any reason to think he has a queen? [/ QUOTE ] The question that you're not thinking about in this thread is "what happens if he doesn't have a queen". [/ QUOTE ] well i certainly dont want to giva a free card to an ace or something like 99, if he raises, i assume he is aggressive and knows that jason is a nit, so id probly call down [/ QUOTE ] A- while it's fun to call jason a nit, it should be clear that it wasn't in reference to his playing style. An ace has 3 outs, 99 has 2. You're really worried about giving them a free card? The point is that by checking the turn you're going to be able to get bets from them on the river that you couldn't otherwise. [/ QUOTE ] so your willing to risk the pot to a mericle card for 1 bet? also i think 99 is calling anyway
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#25
09-24-2005, 11:12 PM
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Re: jason_t v. jgorham #1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] very easy bet, do you have any reason to think he has a queen? [/ QUOTE ] The question that you're not thinking about in this thread is "what happens if he doesn't have a queen". [/ QUOTE ] well i certainly dont want to giva a free card to an ace or something like 99, if he raises, i assume he is aggressive and knows that jason is a nit, so id probly call down [/ QUOTE ] A- while it's fun to call jason a nit, it should be clear that it wasn't in reference to his playing style. An ace has 3 outs, 99 has 2. You're really worried about giving them a free card? The point is that by checking the turn you're going to be able to get bets from them on the river that you couldn't otherwise. [/ QUOTE ] so your willing to risk the pot to a mericle card for 1 bet? also i think 99 is calling anyway [/ QUOTE ] If he has a 2 or 3 outer and will fold on the turn, but will put in a bet on the river, it is worth risking it b/c the pot is not that big (5.75BB I think). This is very similar to an example in HFAP I think.
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#26
09-24-2005, 11:35 PM
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Re: jason_t v. jgorham #1
[ QUOTE ]
so your willing to risk the pot to a mericle card for 1 bet? also i think 99 is calling anyway [/ QUOTE ] (2/44) * (-1) + (42/44) * (5.75 + 1) = 6.39. You're not thinking about this situation well enough. There's a lot more going on than protecting my hand etc.
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#27
09-25-2005, 08:31 AM
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Re: jason_t v. jgorham #1
check. If hes behind, at best he has 2-3 outs. IF he does have a queen its a good spot for him to check raise...but Im not so worried about that. There are a few other reasons to check as well. But all in all...most of the time hes probably folding to the bet... and the pot is medium-ish. I check here.
The only time I dont check is if hes in the habit of calling u down.
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