A very tommy hand

[skp]

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I was not checking my hand. I was checking my situation. I’ll explain.

Zoologists classify species in various ways for various purposes. They can classify them by genetic relatedness if they want, or by physical characteristics, or by location, or whatever else. It’s the same as what librarians do. We the people are groupers, we sort things, in different ways, for different reasons. (But be warned. The things being classified, and their relationships to each other, are not altered by our tediousness.)

For my purposes, which are part scientist (understanding) and part librarian (accessibility), I array all starting hands into three groups, all preflop situations into six groups, and all postflop situations into five groups, and then I do subgrouping from there.

The starting hands are:

Group A: Any hand with an ace or a pair
Group B: All non-group-A hands except for KQ
Group C: KQ

The preflop groups are: BB, SB, BN, CO, HJ, and other.

The postflop groups are: Last, next to last, two players behind, three players behind, and other.

The postflop situation on this hand was next to last with an unimproved group B hand. The next menu layers under that heading are the priority estimates. First is the probability that I had a better hand than the player behind me, which, because of the preflop activity, I put at very slim. (I had K9o.) Next was the probability that he would fold if I bet the flop. My estimate on this hand was that there was a very slim change he would fold, even without the preflop misread. Next was the probability that I would follow up with a bet on the turn after betting the flop and getting called behind. This I knew to be a zero probability. And without a group A hand, I was not going to call down, or win a checkfest showdown. So I checked this situation on the flop, ready to dump right there is the old man bet.

Then, when the old man checked behind on the flop, now I focused on trying to catch a pair on the turn. That didn’t work. When the BB bet out on the turn, the situation was that I had no hand, no position, no reads, no momentum, and lots of time to wait for a better spot.

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Bet. That's my story and I am sticking to it.

[phish]

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Tommy raises in the co. He hasn't raised in literally 2 hours. Still, the button who is an older gentleman - honest abc postflop loose passive pre-flop calls on the button, as does a not good big blind who thinks he's playing good and trying to play good but is far too loose, esp pre-flop.

Flop comes 333. BB checks, Tommy checks. What? I just can't imagine checking any hands there. Given the players in the hand, I think he takes it down on the flop or turn almost every single time and if he's raised it's the easiest fold in the book.

Turn 8, bb bets, tommy folds, old man folds. bb flashes an 8 and drags the pot.

Variance isn't going to kill you, Tommy. Then again, you understand the flow of hands a lot better than I do.

Enlighten me.

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What do you mean when you say 'the flow of hands?'