2knl on party, bluff it up

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
Although the 5 on the turn makes it much less likely he just picked up quads

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious if you even know how to work how much less likely! Impress us Richie!

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious if you even know how to work how much less likely! Impress us Richie!

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, saw that you replied and was hoping you would have some interesting commentary on this hand.

[Richie Rich]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious if you even know how to work how much less likely! Impress us Richie!

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you asking me to "calculate" how much less likely villain was to pick up quads? That's just silly. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

And if so, then you should've asked me to "work out how much..." As I explained in my reply to Yeti, I typed too quickly in my first message and did not correctly convey my thought. It happens. Just like your attempt to have fun with me.

I hope you're becoming a happier and more peaceful person, Jay. I really mean it.

[Prevaricator]

lets take a closer look at this:

It should be clear that if he folds QJ and his range is limited to QJ and 55, then the push is very good.

What if his standard play with JJ is to limp utg? Then is the push good vs his range assuming he folds QJ?

I think if he limps with both QQ and JJ then the push has to be bad, but I think its extremely unlikely he has QQ but only somewhat unlikely he can have JJ. Preflop if he limps utg with QJs, 55, and JJ each 100% of the time, never folding or raising to mix it up, and then plays those the same postflop on that board, is the push good? If it isnt, what is the % of time he is allowed to limp with JJ before the push becomes bad? (and if he can limp with JJ 100% of the time and the push is still good, how often can he limp with QQ?) Can anyone figure this out?

[JMP300z]

I think his hand range is a bit larger than just QJ and 55. Limping and calling a raise UTG and playing the flop and turn in such a manner is also possible w/ AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ. Im not saying these are the most likely but to say he only has one of those three hands for a EV calc is kinda dumb. Is this guy so tight that he will only call this turn raise w/ a set?? Thats a better question.
-JP

[Prevaricator]

[ QUOTE ]
I think his hand range is a bit larger than just QJ and 55. Limping and calling a raise UTG and playing the flop and turn in such a manner is also possible w/ AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ. Im not saying these are the most likely but to say he only has one of those three hands for a EV calc is kinda dumb. Is this guy so tight that he will only call this turn raise w/ a set?? Thats a better question.
-JP

[/ QUOTE ]

AA and KK I would say highly unlikely, but good point, AQ is possible too, although I don't think he check minraises the flop like that. The way he played the hand, pausing after i bet and then minraising reads to me like a hand that beats top pair. I think including only the hands I specified for the EV calc is still worthwhile because it gives us a general idea of how many combinations he has to fold in order for the play to be correct.

[tdomeski]

I think someone once said (regarding bluffing), "don't bluff to try and make your opponent make a big laydown, bluff when you sense weakness."

I think this quote applies here, I mean honestly you are saying he either has QQ, JJ, 55, or QJ. He will NEVER lay down the first 3 and will probably rarely (30% maybe?) lay down QJ.

Pick a better spot.

[JMP300z]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think his hand range is a bit larger than just QJ and 55. Limping and calling a raise UTG and playing the flop and turn in such a manner is also possible w/ AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ. Im not saying these are the most likely but to say he only has one of those three hands for a EV calc is kinda dumb. Is this guy so tight that he will only call this turn raise w/ a set?? Thats a better question.
-JP

[/ QUOTE ]

AA and KK I would say highly unlikely, but good point, AQ is possible too, although I don't think he check minraises the flop like that. The way he played the hand, pausing after i bet and then minraising reads to me like a hand that beats top pair. I think including only the hands I specified for the EV calc is still worthwhile because it gives us a general idea of how many combinations he has to fold in order for the play to be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point was there is probably a 10 percent chance he has one of those hands even played that way, hell theres probably a few percent chance he has absolute AIR.

-JP

[TheWorstPlayer]

Win 980, lose 2000. 1 combo of 55, 9 QJ, 6 QQ, 6 JJ. So if he will play only QJ/55 this way, then you have

EV = [9*980-2000]/10 = +682

If he will mix in JJ then you have

EV = [9*980-6*2000-2000]/16 = -324

If he'll only mix in JJ x proportion of the time, you have

EV = [9*980-6x*2000-2000]/[10+6x]

Setting EV = 0, you get x = 56.7%. So he can mix in JJ 56% of the time and your push is still +EV.

The bigger issue, however, IMO, is the fact that he is probably pretty unlikely to min check/raise top two here. At least not 100% of the time. And he also may CALL with QJ occasionally further decreasing your EV.

[ QUOTE ]
Win 980, lose 2000. 1 combo of 55, 9 QJ, 6 QQ, 6 JJ. So if he will play only QJ/55 this way, then you have

EV = [9*980-2000]/10 = +682

If he will mix in JJ then you have

EV = [9*980-6*2000-2000]/16 = -324

If he'll only mix in JJ x proportion of the time, you have

EV = [9*980-6x*2000-2000]/[10+6x]

Setting EV = 0, you get x = 56.7%. So he can mix in JJ 56% of the time and your push is still +EV.

The bigger issue, however, IMO, is the fact that he is probably pretty unlikely to min check/raise top two here. At least not 100% of the time. And he also may CALL with QJ occasionally further decreasing your EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think these numbers are right. The pot was $870 on the turn, now it's $1220 after the $350 bet. Where does the 980 come from? Also, not all of that $2K is still in his stack.