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#21
09-13-2005, 12:29 AM
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Re: BIG PAPI = M V P
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] A-Rod's too far ahead of anyone else for it to make a difference. The sad thing is Ortiz may actually win it, if the Yanks don't make the playoffs. There have to be a dozen players with better "stats" than him. How much do you think his "clutch performance" is worth? Even if you don't believe in clutch hitters, that doesn't mean clutch performances aren't valuable. I have no clue how good Ortiz has been in the clutch. Anyone have a win expectation added stat out there for hitters? [/ QUOTE ] what about: Clutch "Clutch" is the name we've given to the portion of Bill James's Runs Created formula that includes the impact of a batter's batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of "clutch hitting," just one way of looking at it. from hardballtimes? [/ QUOTE ] Ortiz gets 15+ runs on A-Rod based on clutch from hard ball times. Considering this doesn't take into account high leverage situations - it's conceivable Ortiz would beat him out in a win expectation stat. 
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#22
09-13-2005, 12:31 AM
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Re: BIG PAPI = M V P
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] A-Rod's too far ahead of anyone else for it to make a difference. The sad thing is Ortiz may actually win it, if the Yanks don't make the playoffs. There have to be a dozen players with better "stats" than him. How much do you think his "clutch performance" is worth? Even if you don't believe in clutch hitters, that doesn't mean clutch performances aren't valuable. I have no clue how good Ortiz has been in the clutch. Anyone have a win expectation added stat out there for hitters? [/ QUOTE ] what about: Clutch "Clutch" is the name we've given to the portion of Bill James's Runs Created formula that includes the impact of a batter's batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of "clutch hitting," just one way of looking at it. from hardballtimes? [/ QUOTE ] Ortiz gets 15+ runs on A-Rod based on clutch from hard ball times. Considering this doesn't take into account high leverage situations - it's conceivable Ortiz would beat him out in a win expectation stat. [/ QUOTE ] and lose to a guy like sheffield.
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#26
09-13-2005, 12:37 AM
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Re: BIG PAPI = M V P
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] A-Rod's too far ahead of anyone else for it to make a difference. The sad thing is Ortiz may actually win it, if the Yanks don't make the playoffs. There have to be a dozen players with better "stats" than him. How much do you think his "clutch performance" is worth? Even if you don't believe in clutch hitters, that doesn't mean clutch performances aren't valuable. I have no clue how good Ortiz has been in the clutch. Anyone have a win expectation added stat out there for hitters? [/ QUOTE ] what about: Clutch "Clutch" is the name we've given to the portion of Bill James's Runs Created formula that includes the impact of a batter's batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of "clutch hitting," just one way of looking at it. from hardballtimes? [/ QUOTE ] Ortiz gets 15+ runs on A-Rod based on clutch from hard ball times. Considering this doesn't take into account high leverage situations - it's conceivable Ortiz would beat him out in a win expectation stat. [/ QUOTE ] and lose to a guy like sheffield. [/ QUOTE ] Sure... I'd never suggest using that stat alone when voting for the MVP anyway. Just thought it'd be interesting to see if Ortiz really deserves all the hype.
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#27
09-13-2005, 12:40 AM
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Re: BIG PAPI = M V P
[ QUOTE ]
There have to be a dozen players with better "stats" than him. [/ QUOTE ] In the AL? Nope. There are two guys with a better OPS - both play for the Yankees. Ortiz trails only ARod in homers (41 - 40) and leads him in RBIs (126 - 110) doubles (36 - 26) and is tied with him in runs scored. A-Rod is about 30 points ahead in BA. Ortiz has also walked 11 more times than A-Rod. I'm no stats guru, but as far as I'm concerned it's a two man race in the AL. I think Ortiz is slightly more valuable offensively as of right now. One thing to factor in is that he's a DH - no help in the field. If I'm not mistaken A-Rod is not having a stellar year in that regard either. I'm not sure how much that should affect things. Last year A-Rod had a reputation for NOT hitting well in the clutch. Ortiz is the exact opposite and has been even moreso this year. Obviously A-Rod didn't drive in 110 runs this year by choking every time either, however. But if you ask me who I want at the plate at go time, I say Ortiz, no doubt. I don't know how much A-Rod has changed his reputation there. NT
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#28
09-13-2005, 12:43 AM
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Re: BIG PAPI = M V P
Ortiz is one of the top 4 or 5 hitters in the AL, but when you factor in that he is a DH, I believe several others pass him in "value." This is based on pure rate stats and doesn't include any "clutch" factors. As I stated I have no idea how much value this adds to Ortiz (or detracts from A-Rod).
Also, even if A-Rod is a below average 3rd basemen, that's a lot more valuable than a DH. And I don't really believe he's a below average 3rd basemen. I have to believe that his presence there has something to do with DJ's defensive stats going from terrible to pretty good since A-Rod has joined the Yanks.
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#29
09-13-2005, 12:48 AM
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Re: BIG PAPI = M V P
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you guys are both trying to quantify an ability or trait that is by definition unquantifiable. [/ QUOTE ] why? What's wrong with my "win expectation added" idea? [/ QUOTE ] because when commentators or people say someone is clutch, they mean they help their team in ways that arent counted on the stat sheet. or that some at bats have huge value and those players perform better in those situations. and thats virtually impossible to measure.
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#30
09-13-2005, 12:54 AM
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Re: BIG PAPI = M V P
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] you guys are both trying to quantify an ability or trait that is by definition unquantifiable. [/ QUOTE ] why? What's wrong with my "win expectation added" idea? [/ QUOTE ] because when commentators or people say someone is clutch, they mean they help their team in ways that arent counted on the stat sheet. or that some at bats have huge value and those players perform better in those situations. and thats virtually impossible to measure. [/ QUOTE ] That will show up in a win expectation stat. For instance, a home run in the bottom of the 9th with the score tied and 2 outs might be worth .45 win expectation points. A HR with a 10-2 lead in the top of the 9th would be worth something like 0.0001 win expectation points. Edit: Basically, the whole win expectation stat idea is to sum up how much each AB helped your team towards winning. This is done by computing the win probability BEFORE and AFTER the AB, and subtracting the 1st from the 2nd. I've seen it done before for the World Series, and for some individual games at the Hard Ball Times. I haven't seen a full season's worth of the stat, though.
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