How to play AK OOP against differing opponents

[Evan]

You continue to outthink yourself. MP2 could have pair (<A)+gutshot, gutshot+BD flush draw or a whole slew of other hands that will check through the turn and make you regret checking.

[flair1239]

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raising this flop with a draw would be retarded

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Welcome to 5/10 full.

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Yep

[flair1239]

I can folow your thinking on this. I am not so concerned about folding UTG2. Because if this is the type of donk that I am used to seeing in these games he is not folding a face card.

So the real question in my mind is how often is the TAG going to bet here.

The thing is if the Tag is decent any bet is probably going to be of the bet fold variety. The other thing is that looking at the board there is not a lot that could have hit the tag, that he would not have raised PF. I mean AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ (All suite or off suit), KTs, QJs... are probably all getting raised here PF. Unless his PFR is lowish... say 6-8%. If he is an observant TAG and knows UTG2 sucks, he would be a lot more likely to raise PF with a wider range.

What I do like about it though, is the pot is not large, you are not extremely vulnerable to free cards (although, maybe a little more vulnerable than it would first appear). Also if it does get checked through, you really have not necessarily missed two bets, because (if the free card does not beat you) you may get a call on the river from one or both of them when they would have folded to a turn bet, or called a turn bet and folded the river unimproved.

So we could do the math on this, but I don't think it is bad, and depending on the individule read you have on the TAG (sometimes these are hard to get across inb a post), it may indeed be the best line for this situation.

[ErrantNight]

i'm pretty sure it's not.

[flair1239]

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[I]f he has a strong hand, you may very well have missed the chance to bet-3-bet

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This is great point; I got so caught up in explaining why I think the check/raise is likely to miss value, I forgot to point out why a different line is likely to extract more. Obviously if they fold to the turn check/raise but would have called down if Hero didn't check/raise then Hero is missing value. But if one of them has a weaker monster, we're clearly missing value because a check/raise on that board from a pfr is extremely scary and will probably halt all action.

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I think you are underestimate the donkness of the bad players at this level.

Many of them are popping up taking a shot with $100-$150 from 1/2 or 2/4. They see a $50 pot and it is hard for them to laydown. Not saying this is the case here.

But with Joker's read of a "horrible calling Station", I would tend to honor that read. I think that type of player would have trouble laying down any part of the board.

[brettbrettr]

I dont' mind the c/r much but this is just wrong:
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If he had a strong draw that's worth checking the turn, I'd think he'd raise the flop.

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What sort of draw does this guy have on this board? You also don't give enough credence to the fact that you raised out of the BB and he knows this. This means, if he's good, he's not raising this flop a lot of the time and he *is* taking the free card. Not here though, because he doesn't have a draw.

[molawn2mo]

I have glanced at several of the responses and understand that there seems to be divergent opinions here. Mine is as follows:

Betting out the turn is likely to get 1 to 2 bets from the opponent(s) rarely more, maybe 1.75 bbs average.

check raising will occasionally be 0 bets and occasionally 4 bets but likely 2+ bets (only when calling station checks - they do occasionally bet ya know - and TAG takes the free card does hero miss, here). Much more likely is that hero is viewed as continuation betting the flop and then, when called in 2 places, "not spewing" a turn bet into 2 others. Therfore I rate hero's play, check raising the turn, as significantly +EV.