My big leak

[Guthrie]

If I had one big bet for every time I played that hand and lost, my winrate would double.

Last week I started keeping count of how many times I had Axs, flopped four to a flush, had odds to call to the river, and didn't make the flush. I stopped counting after 12 hands. I didn't stop playing Axs.

It's not a leak, it's bad karma.

[bozlax]

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It's not a leak, it's odds.

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FYP.

[Disconnected]

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I'm a newb (go easy). Why is this not right?

On the turn, Penguin bets, CO calls making 9.4BB pot. If Batman raises (knowing his hand will be good - if made)expecting at least Penguin and CO to call; he's putting in 2BB to a pot of 13.4BB (15.4 if the Joker calls) 15% of pot...yet he has 9/46unseen cards to make his hand (11 including the other sevens) 20% chance. Seems 5% in his favour.

No doubt I have my understanding of pot odds and ev completely screwed but I would appreciate an explanation. I like to be aggressive with these hands (based on my screwed up logic), please help.

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Well, pot odds will tell you whether to call or fold.

Pot equity (which I think you're trying to get at) tells you whether to bet/raise for value. In a strict value sense, and when you're value-betting draws, you don't consider the bets that have already gone in the pot.

That's not to say it doesn't matter, because you will also bet/raise to improve your chances to win the pot sometimes.

In this case, you have flush outs, seven outs, and ace outs. I don't think you have the equity to raise for value, and there aren't too many hands that Joker would fold for 2 that he shouldn't fold for 1 bet. Plus, you might get 3-bet by Penguin. So, no raise here.

With pot odds, you do consider the size of the pot, and it's an easy call.

[marchron]

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Shouldn't we be raising flop and turn to protect our hand and/or exploit our equity advantage?

Or do I need to rererererererererererereread SSHE again?

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no, no

yes

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Hmm.

On pp. 148-9, SSHE recommends raising with middle pair and a backdoor straight draw (8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on a board of 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]).

Even though this hand is bottom pair, this hand is stronger, I'd think, because of the better backdoor draw and the ace overcard.

In the SSHE example, though, the bet is directly from Hero's left; that's not true here.

[ubercuber]

In the SSHE example you would make 4 opponents call 2 bets, here only 1 so you are not really protecting you're hand...much.

This board is fairly coordinated, we really don't discount any A or 7 outs? It seems like we could hit and still be behind at least a percentage of the time.

A big leak would be something like folding decent hands in large pots to one bet on the river. This is not even close to a big leak.