Coordinated board and lots of action...would you call this turn? - Page 3

Shillx · #21 09-04-2005, 08:17 PM

Yeah you have 11 outs if you can get it HU. There is no way you can give yourself ~42% equity when you 1st take a look at the flop. No way. You also have to understand that certian hands that really hurt you (flush draws and trips) will never fold on this board. If you do get it HU you got lucky that none of those hands were out there. Take these types of chances when the pot is 15 SB and not 6 SB.

I'm not saying that betting the flop is bad. I'm saying that betting the flop in this case is bad. Make these bets when the pot is big. Why play HU in a small pot when you could play 4-way with roughly the same equity. Take the overlay in a small pot. Take the extra outs in a big pot.

Brad

milesdyson · #22 09-04-2005, 08:23 PM

the problem lies in you being out of position against the lag and trying to clean up really really weak outs against such a large field.

your hand is not one to win very often without becoming a straight or a flush, so don't "protect" your draw. let the family come along and try to draw cheaply, improve to your hand, and let a large field pay you off.

let's say, for example that you simply check called this flop and the turn was the 6 again. this time utg checked and you expected the lag guy to raise (at least sometimes) with a hand worse than yours. then i could understand the bet. you are protecting an actual made hand in that case.

lautzutao · #23 09-04-2005, 08:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah you have 11 outs if you can get it HU. There is no way you can give yourself ~42% equity on the flop. No way.

I'm not saying that betting the flop is bad. I'm saying that betting the flop in this case is bad. Make these bets when the pot is big. Why play HU in a small pot when you could play 4-way with roughly the same equity. Take the overlay in a small pot. Take the extra outs in a big pot.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, this makes sense to me. But what do you think about my turn raise? I don't see how raising is NOT better than calling in this situation for the reasons I stated above. So my options here are raise and fold yes?

And if I'm wrong or my logic is flawed, an explanation would be really appreciated, not a WTF...I'm trying to understand why I wouldn't try to drive out players behind me in this situation, or why I should give the hand up. I don't think you'll ever convince me of calling so if that's your answer just call me a stubborn !@#$ and be done with me [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Shillx · #24 09-04-2005, 08:29 PM

UTG called 2 cold on the flop and then bet the turn. This looks a lot like trips to me. Bad players do it this way all the time. He could also have made a straight, but he isn't betting out with a bare six in this spot. Hell you can't even beat a bare six...

Brad

lautzutao · #25 09-04-2005, 08:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the problem lies in you being out of position against the lag and trying to clean up really really weak outs against such a large field.

your hand is not one to win very often without becoming a straight or a flush, so don't "protect" your draw. let the family come along and try to draw cheaply, improve to your hand, and let a large field pay you off.

let's say, for example that you simply check called this flop and the turn was the 6 again. this time utg checked and you expected the lag guy to raise (at least sometimes) with a hand worse than yours. then i could understand the bet. you are protecting an actual made hand in that case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, thank you for the response. I understand why I don't make the bet on the flop, but UTG didn't check the turn, he bet into me. Now I DO have to protect what remaining outs I possibly have against him, while pushing out other draws or other potential 2-pairs yes?

milesdyson · #26 09-04-2005, 08:30 PM

the turn bettor actually has a good hand... the lag did not switch seats and lead the turn - that's a different guy.

lautzutao · #27 09-04-2005, 08:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG called 2 cold on the flop and then bet the turn. This looks a lot like trips to me. Bad players do it this way all the time. He could also have made a straight, but he isn't betting out with a bare six in this spot. Hell you can't even beat a bare six...

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope it's ok to quote Sklansky's books, if not I apologize and will delete it.

SSHE pg. 160 PROTECTING DRAWS AND BUYING OUTS

"In a large pot improving your chance to win is more valuable. Protect vulnerable outs in large pots.

Isn't this what I'm looking at here with 2 players behind me, even if I'm potentially drawing dead to UTG(something I can't be totally sure of at the time of the hand)?

I understand this isn't the LAG betting into me, that I am probably behind here...but at the time I thought my two pair was better than the LAG when the 8 hit. The lag was more likely to be raising on the flop with a 4-flush or a 5 than with a 7

lautzutao · #28 09-05-2005, 12:24 AM

I'm sorry to keep double posting, but I can't let this go...

Ok. UTG has me beat. I've said this before earlier in my post and others have reiterated it. But what hands beat me on this board? Since I have no information on UTG he could have ANYTHING. Lets take a look:

What I'm drawing dead to:

1. 66 for the full house-1 way
2. 77 for quads- 1 way
3. 88 for the full house- 2 ways

So I'm drawing dead to 4 possible hands, that doesn't look so bad to me so far.

What I'm drawing live against:

1. 34d for the 'idiot' straight plus a flush draw- 1 way with 5 outs to win

2. 34 for the straight- 15 ways with 8 outs to win

3. 98d for the high straight with a flush draw- 1 way with 3 cards to win.

4. 98 for the high straight- 12 ways with 4 outs to win.

I'm going to say that when weighted together I have an average of about 5.5 outs to hit winners.

Now factoring in that 4 out of the possible 33 hands ahead of me I'm drawing dead to(10% of the winning hands), I have approximately 5 outs to cinch the hand against UTG, which puts me at roughly 8.5 to 1.

IF NOBODY WAS BEHIND ME I COULD JUSTIFY CALLING. The pot is currently 7.2 to 1 for me to call, perfectly reasonable when implied odds are taking into account. Problem is, there are 2 players behind me possibly drawing as well. Since they possibly represent a threat to my draw(either to the flush or a gutshot) I have to attempt to push them out don't I? Otherwise I have to give up the hand.

If you can tell me with 90% certainty that you're drawing dead here and this pot isn't worth playing for please explain to me why. If anything I said above looks fishy please respond and tell me why. This hand is really eating at me, and not because of the result. I ended up folding the hand and a blank fell on the river so...

Am I just crazy to be looking at this hand in this manner?