On the Edge Part VII

[BarronVangorToth]

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Also, I'm interested in your thoughts on the scenario I posted, in which you are facing 3-bets instead of 2.


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Given all the players in the pot and my position, I would call 3-bets, not fold or cap. But it is a CLOSE call given my read of the players, only made possible by the dead money in there, my position, my thinking of outplaying people after the flop, their thoughts on me, not to mention a little metagame consideration....

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[kidcolin]

I don't have a copy of it in front of me, but for some reason I'm doubting SSH would advocate calling 3-cold with KQs.

[BarronVangorToth]

p. 83, IF the conditions listed are met ... and they were.


Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth

[bernie]

Preflop: Some of your high card value is gone given your description of the initial raiser and first coldcaller. It's unlikely that hitting a K or Q will be good. If they were looser, especially the coldcaller, I'd like the raise a little more.

But it's not like you're going to fold this in this spot preflop, but you wouldn't mind seeing it cheaply here, imo.

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The flop is a key decision because if you know the UTG will 3 bet, then it's a fold as you'll only be getting 6-1 on an 11-1 shot(assuming that the UTG 3 bets and the other 2 only call). Actually, it's not a str8 11-1 as you could hit and be redrawn on so it's a titch longer on the odds. I'd say it's close, but I'd fold (if i thought the UTG was going to 3 bet). I'll assume you weren't sure if the UTG would 3 bet here. You can't be happy that that flop just got capped behind you. But, sh*t happens. You can't fold for the 2nd big bet coming through. Now your stuck in the hand for another street.

You're getting 6-1. That (1) equals 3 small bets. Which means you'd have to make up 15 bets (7.5 bbs),actually a little more to cover the redraw possibility) should you hit. Which means if the turn goes for 2 bets, you'll still need to have at least 2 callers on the river, AND your hand holding up. Unless you think the turn will go more than 2 bets. Your description of UTG says he may be wary should you come alive. This may be true on the turn, however, the other guy may go more bets in that spot. It's a close decision, really. Edit: in looking back at your thoughts on the river to gain extra bets, that would very likely also work on the turn.

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Should I fold due to the possibility of the raises? There are three possibilities.

No further raises. I was putting in 2 big bets against 24.75.

Player No. 1 raised and No. 2 called. I was putting in 3 big bets against 26.75.

Player No. 1 raised and No. 2 capped. I was putting in 4 big bets against 28.75.

It started to look bad. However, I looked at the implied odds. If Player No. 1 raised and Player No. 2 capped, they would continue to act in this fashion on the river, as the ten would not register as a scare card, since I knew both would go the distance with second-, third-, and fourth-nut hands. If I played it passively when I made my hand, they would three-bet or cap, which could have as many as 32.75 big bets going in, and if they put in another three or four apiece, I could be getting over 40 big bets by being in the hand.


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If you're planning ahead, as you look like in this part, you will not gain a 40 bet pot if the river/turn gets capped. Since you haven't put your money in yet, you only count the bets of your opponents. Start with the 28.75 Bets and add 8 bets max for a capped river. It's 36.75 Big bets.

Another thing missing: The UTG is betting into the flop capper. He hasn't slowed down. Would this person cap preflop with JJ or AJ given your description? This also makes his other ranges during the hand a little tighter wouldn't it? If he had AK, he very likely wouldn't be betting back into the flop capper on the turn. Which leaves us to 2 pair or a set. You mention he could have AJ, would he cap with AJ preflop? He likely has a set. Even if he only had JJ, he can't really put the other guy on AA yet since the guy didn't 3 bet preflop and he's more likely representing 2 pair himself. This turn is most likely to be 3 bets. Another part is, he knows you 3 bet preflop, and are now calling 2 bets cold on the flop. He isn't putting you on a gutshot, as he mentioned, what hand could he be putting you on? You're play looks like you actually have a monster.

So given the above, imo, it's most likely scenario 2. So figure you're getting 9-1 on it. You'll have to make up 2 units of 3 big bets on the river. 6 big bets. Which means the riv will have to go for 3 bets. Given you're read, it's another close one.

The river, I thought was played very well and thought out. Many would've got overexcited and 3 bet that river. Instead you collected the extra 2 BBs that helped make the profit on the hand. Otherwise, it looks like you do all that just to, essentially, break even on the hand(if you don't collect those extra 2BBs).

Very interesting hand.

b

[bernie]

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To answer your questions above, if I read the guy as having AA,KK,QQ, or AK, AQ, with callers some of which are aggressive and seem to know what they are doing and I am holding K-Q suited, I am folding. Nice cards, bad terrain. I can find a better spot to fight, later.


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5 way action to you for 2 bets. 3 of these are morons, + the possibility if you just call the big blind will come along also. You'd be nuts to fold this preflop. It's the raise that's questionable

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That reduces your hand to a junky suited connector which might as well be a 5-6 as much as a K-Q

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This is absurd. KQs is much, much better than 56s. They're not even in the same ballpark.

b

[bernie]

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you have to be careful with tight-raisers.


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And tight coldcallers.

b

[kidcolin]

That's been my argument all along. That first cold-caller who he states has a premium hand is why I dislike this 3-bet so much. He knows two hands out there are likely to kill his, and he knows they're both strong players who aren't afraid to go after a pot, which also stinks.

[bernie]

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This sounds harsher than I mean it to sound, but I'm really starting to question whether you should be contributing articles to a poker magazine if your thoughts on this subject come down to whether Ed thinks it's right or not.

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Would you rather read articles that generate zero discussion and/or just have threads that say, 'nice article.'?

I find this article pretty thought provoking (in a puzzle sort of way as the decisions are close). To me, that alone makes it worth throwing out there and seeing what happens. Gets the brain working. I think his using Ed as a source is relevant because of how Ed's book is viewed and how it can be used to justify the play. You can use that to actually explore a little deeper about the book and its concepts and finding exceptions thereto.

Much more-so than most articles I find in most poker rags you find in cardrooms. Many of those articles are just plain horrible. One reason is the thinking of the author in those articles can be just plain wrong. I watched a couple guys use blatant results oriented thinking to justify a play that wasn't even close. And yet, they may be getting paid quite a bit more than Bangor on this one.

I think the article was pretty well thought out and explained, imo. Whether you agree or not with it is part of the fun. Just because he uses Ed's thoughts to present it shouldn't really matter.

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[BarronVangorToth]

Thanks, Bernie, I'm VERY happy this article has a few threads going about it as, for whatever reason, my first six generated mostly the aforementioned "nice article" and while a few had a few discussions ... none anything close to this.

I know I've grown quite a bit as a poker player from those earlier articles - more and quicker than any other previous time in my playing - and I'm sure, along the line, I'm going to misstep more often then I can see.

Thankfully my results have been wonderful as a whole, but I want to avoid being results-oriented and it is possible that the thoughts I exhibited in this article are some type of leak. I don't think so -- but if discussing it can lead us all to be better players and put more money in all of our pockets, that's what it's all about.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[bernie]

I think the 3 bet is close. You have 3 other morons in there along with the raiser and tight coldcaller. Put all the CCs as loose coldcallers in and I like the raise a little more.

3 betting isn't nearly as bad as folding. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

b