AJs flops TPTK - Page 3

Bodhi · #21 09-02-2005, 12:48 AM

You can't give a rebuttal because you aren't considering all of the reasons to wait for the turn. The real point is that it doesn't much matter what odds we give our opponents on the flop because our equity sucks anyway. If a safe turn card comes, our equity goes up significantly.

sean c · #22 09-02-2005, 08:13 AM

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You can't give a rebuttal because you aren't considering all of the reasons to wait for the turn. The real point is that it doesn't much matter what odds we give our opponents on the flop because our equity sucks anyway. If a safe turn card comes, our equity goes up significantly.

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Are equity also increases if our flop check/raise gets us heads up with the CO.

jt1 · #23 09-02-2005, 08:29 AM

If we decrease the odds of our opponents, we increase our equity. How can this not be correct?

paperboyNC · #24 09-02-2005, 09:57 AM

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because our equity sucks anyway

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As Bodhi said, our AJs has very low pot equity. Giving them poorer odds does not increase our pot equity.

The main reason check-raising the flop is a bad idea, is that you may ruin your opportunity to check raise the turn.

The argument on this thread is that the CO will like check-down the turn. I don't see why this is true though.

sean c · #25 09-02-2005, 10:28 AM

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because our equity sucks anyway

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As Bodhi said, our AJs has very low pot equity. Giving them poorer odds does not increase our pot equity.

The main reason check-raising the flop is a bad idea, is that you may ruin your opportunity to check raise the turn.

The argument on this thread is that the CO will like check-down the turn. I don't see why this is true though.

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First off if I was the CO and held AK or AQ and a brick fell on the turn I would check the turn through in a heart beat. I agree with you and everyone else that says our equity isn't great on the flop but I still think the best way to improve our equity is with a flop check/raise with the intention of folding marginal draws. Check/calling the flop and letting a turn brick check through is a great way to lose this hand IMO and check/calling the flop and betting the turn does nothing to protect my hand.

Bodhi · #26 09-02-2005, 12:50 PM

Sure, we're decreasing the equity of drawing hands when we raise, but do we even have 2 small bet's worth of equity on this flop? 4 players, 8.2 small bets, we need 25% equity to make a flop-raise worthwhile, and we wouldn't even have that much unless we have the best hand right now, let alone by the turn and river.

Bodhi · #27 09-02-2005, 01:01 PM

sean, against 4 opponents, including the pfr, do you think we're best 1/4 times at the showdown? It depends, doesn't it, on what comes on the turn and river? Obviously [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. We have to be best at least 25% of the time for the flop raise to make any sense at all (otherwise we're putting in more money than we're getting back), factor in reverse-implied-odds and the flop raise looks really wacky.

sean c · #28 09-02-2005, 01:08 PM

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sean, against 4 opponents, including the pfr, do you think we're best 1/4 times at the showdown? It depends, doesn't it, on what comes on the turn and river? Obviously [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. We have to be best at least 25% of the time for the flop raise to make any sense at all (otherwise we're putting in more money than we're getting back), factor in reverse-implied-odds and the flop raise looks really wacky.

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Bodhi what do you think our equity jumps to if our flop check/raise gets this heads up? Also if you think check/calling is correct what is your plan on the turn if a good card falls?

Bodhi · #29 09-02-2005, 01:09 PM

Sharpie, can you post the results? I'd like to run the hand at twodimes.net to see what range of hands you were actually up against and what the win %'s were.

Bodhi · #30 09-02-2005, 01:23 PM

Ah, if we get it heads-up then our equity depends entirely on what the CO has (obviously, again). I imagine that we'd be ahead more often than behind though, so around 65% as a wild guess. The problem is that getting hu with a check-raise isn't realistic. You have two ep limpers, and if they're playing anything decent, the flop hit them squarely. With the tendency of semi-loose players to limp with hands like Q9, QT, KT, KJ, T9, not to mention suited hands, the only hands this flop missed entirely were the lower pocket-pairs.

If a safe turn card falls, e.g. 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I'm going to donk the turn because we can't count on the CO to bet again. What you're going to say is "Aha! But now the drawing hands are getting odds to call, and we're giving them better odds than if we had check-raised the flop." This is true, but we can't do anything about that if our equity on the flop was less than 25%. If a safe turn card does fall, then the chance of our equity giving us +EV on the turn bet is much better.

Edit: Actually, if we just called the flop and donked the turn, the odds we'd give our opponents really wouldn't be that much better than what they got from the flop cr because only 4 sb would've gone in on the flop.