On the button with an extra poster. Raise preflop with marginal hand?

[chief444]

I was simply responding to Owen's comments about the 40%. But if you want to look at actual values then you need to at the very least put some effort into estimating how often you win with no flop or with one flop bet HU. The equity and times you actually win at showdown is probably not even half of the value here.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I was simply responding to Owen's comments about the 40%. But if you want to look at actual values then you need to at the very least put some effort into estimating how often you win with no flop or with one flop bet HU. The equity and times you actually win at showdown is probably not even half of the value here.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'm liking it more now. As usual, I'm glad I provided the opportunity to be corrected [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

So...if we can get everyone to fold 44% of the time, we see an immediate profit. With tight blinds, this is probably already almost good enough. Then, we add in the FE we have with a flop bet, things look better...and even when he want's to stick around, our equity isn't horrible....ok....

I think we could really make this play with almost just 2 cards when the blinds are tight.

Let's talk about this situation when we have two loose blinds.

Loose Passive calling stations, I'm thinking a call is probably better.

Losse Passive weak players, probably a raise is better.

Loose Aggressive players, I'm not sure we should even enter the hand.

How does all this sound?

[bigalt]

Yeah you don't necessarily have to take it down pre-flop here.

I have never considered adding this to my game, but....

if I post in the CO and get a monster hand and it gets checked around to me, if I can be almost certain that if I check button will raise, would a check-reraise not be a viable play?

[DeathDonkey]

Submitted without comment.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $10.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, CO folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds.

Final Pot: 3.25 BB

-DeathDonkey

[chief444]

Sounds close I guess. FWIW I have no idea which hands exactly here are profitable and which are not. Maybe when my database reaches like 3,xxx,xxx hands I will but it's not a real common situation. I just don't see raising a suited connector as a mistake here with tight blinds. And personally, with tight blinds I'm raising about anything I'm playing which is quite a bit. With real loose/passive blinds limping certainly seems fine.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
My boy QTip here is right. I went and downloaded PokerStove and ran it and 54s isn't ahead of random hands. I'm still not sure the extra money in the pot, our position, and FE of a flop bet doesn't change things though. 76s also comes off as 45% equity against one caller, but I'd raise that in this situation.

P.S. Thanks QTip for the motivation to download PokerStove.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to borrow one of Mason's Poker Essays (I think v. 3) from me and read the essay about ATo vs. 22.

Raising preflop here has nothing to do with having or not having an equity advantage; it's more about what we can represent postflop.

You don't need much hand value here to make raising profitable.

[Moneyline]

I wouldn't change a thing.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]


It isn't about equity. It is about representation. I made this play the other day (if you read HUSH you'll remember) with J7o in a situation where the blinds were tightish (SB was actually kinda loose, 35%ish) and the consensus in HUSH is that most of the players were going to make this raise with any two cards.

But here's the thing: in this case, even if it doesn't work preflop very often (and it doesn't have to), you'll take this down with a flop bet a lot more often than you might surmise.

And when you don't, you can always win a big pot when you hit your straight.

Edit: I also neglected to mention the point that you are up against a subrandom hand here, not against a random hand. That's important as well.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[Solid_p]

Love the raise when the blinds are tight! If someone in the blinds is loose it changes quite a bit I guess. Great thread!