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#21
08-25-2005, 03:41 PM
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Re: Just how big do the swings get?
[ QUOTE ]
For the people telling you to tighten up, I don't think a VPIP of 21% is all that loose, as long as you are playing the right mix (ie, looser in stealing situations). [/ QUOTE ] I think 21% is around optimal at the the BBJ tables. I don't think optimal is that much lower at the regular 2/4 Party Tables (probably between 19-21%). Optimal at the BBJ may even be 22 or 23%. 30% at any table of any limit seems pretty ridiculous - unless your the hottest player in the best game ever. But remember - VP$IP is only a small percentage of the whole story. Since it sounds like the OP is stating to get his PF game in line he should really move to concentrating his improvement efforts on post-flop play. IMO, post-flop is probably where the majority or his giant swing has resulted from. Mistakes on the first two streets are only costing you 1/2 of what they cost on the latter two streets. 
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#22
08-25-2005, 03:52 PM
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Re: Just how big do the swings get?
I pretty much own them all and I have read them all multiple times. I haven't started HOH 2 and I am just finishing Poker Essays III.
My pre-flop raise percentage is 6.09.
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#23
08-25-2005, 04:01 PM
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Re: Just how big do the swings get?
[ QUOTE ]
My guess is that a big part of your problems comes from playing hands out of position. [/ QUOTE ] A while back this used to be oneof my leaks as I did not make the adjustment from the micros, where you can limp fairly confidently witj certain hands from EP, to the small stakes limits, where sometimes you could still do the same, but quite often you could not. I have long since tightened up significantly from EP where game circumstances require you to do so.
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#24
08-25-2005, 04:17 PM
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Re: Just how big do the swings get?
[ QUOTE ]
My pre-flop raise percentage is 6.09. [/ QUOTE ] I'm sure there'll be myriad posts saying how this is too low (and it is), but I don't think you are at the point where you need to be scrutinizing individual stats yet. The bottom line is that you're break-even over 5500 hands. This is not unreasonable even for a very good player. For the folks who say "You are probably a losing player because winning players seldom have 450BB downswings" I would ask: How do you explain the 450BB upswing then? Isn't that equally unlikely for a losing player? Keep playing tight. Post a few hands you have questions about. Check back in with your progress after another 5500 hands.
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#25
08-25-2005, 04:19 PM
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Re: Just how big do the swings get?
[ QUOTE ]
I pretty much own them all and I have read them all multiple times. I haven't started HOH 2 and I am just finishing Poker Essays III. My pre-flop raise percentage is 6.09. [/ QUOTE ] You are a loose passive player, and a marginal winner at best judging by the swings you are talking about. Poker books are way overated in my opinion. -SmileyEH
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#26
08-25-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: Just how big do the swings get?
He didn't swing up 450 then down 450. He went 225 up and 225 down. Also, I was a beyond terrible player last year when I started and in my first week I swung up 250BB and then down 250BB. I had no idea what I was doing preflop or postflop, I just ran very hot then very cold.
With stats of 21/6, something is wrong preflop, and most likely postflop. I'm not trying to be hard on steamboatin because he seems like a nice guy who is trying to learn, but it's not helping to excuse these swings as simple variance.
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#27
08-25-2005, 04:50 PM
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Re: Just how big do the swings get?
[ QUOTE ]
With stats of 21/6, something is wrong preflop, and most likely postflop. I'm not trying to be hard on steamboatin because he seems like a nice guy who is trying to learn, but it's not helping to excuse these swings as simple variance. [/ QUOTE ] I'm don't disagree that there's room for improvement but, really, 21/6 at a loose table aren't awful stats. In fact, I'd say it would be pretty easy to win at 2/4 with those preflop stats. If Steam had asked why he was breakeven after 5800 hands, people would have said "Don't worry. 5800 hands isn't enough hands to prove anything". Instead he couched it in a "why are my swings so big?" post and people are busy explaining to him that it's because his game has huge holes (and what they are). 5800 hands of breakeven poker isn't enough to prove anything.
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#28
08-25-2005, 05:11 PM
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Re: Just how big do the swings get?
The issues is not whether he can win. Of course he can win with those stats and even if he has plenty of holes in his game.
The likelihood of having swings of over 200BB is mainly determined by his theoretical win rate. I don't know what passes for a good win rate in these games, but I'm assuming something around 3BB/100 is possible. If that is true, a 224BB downswing is pretty unlikely. If he is a 1.5BB/100 winner, it much more likely (but still a rare occurance). I think it is likely that someone who until recently was playing 30% of his hands and who doesn't raise as much as he should, probably makes a lot of post-flop mistakes as well. He definitely will not win enough with his big hands, which will really affect his win rate.
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