PUSH or wait for small stack to be eleminated?

[1C5]

used to push this, now min raise it.

[MonkeeMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I just did the the ICM analysis with SGA, and it turns out that this push is +EV across virtually every set of calling ranges I could come up with. This is definately a push, and the reason is that you have the other two big stacks covered. This means that even if you are called and lose, you still have a shot at the making the money because the other stack is so short.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. If you lose to anyone but the short stack you are all-in for less than the BB next hand and shortie can watch with amusement.

[bawcerelli]

don't we need to get back to the basics with this one? aggressive poker is winning poker. the blinds are significant and it's time to start distancing ourselves from the other two big stacks. push is good.

[bennies]

nice play

[citanul]

i push here, even at a 22.

the point that others bring up here is a good one, that you should expect other players to call with hands they really shouldn't call with. though i haven't gone to the calculator, i'm pretty certain even if your put your opponents on really bad calling ranges, this push is good.

poker, and sngs, is an interesting game because it is not true that you playing in an optimal manner for beating optimal opponents will beat a bad opponent or opponent set. in a game like chess, the reverse is clearly true. however, since a bad player's play can negatively effect your outcomes, you *must* take into account how bad and what kind of bad your opponents are when making close decisions.

a subnote of this is that while your opponent's call in this particular case is bad in the sense that it loses him money, his call here against a pushing range that a reasonably good hero will have will lose that hero a lot of money as well.

when all else fails, remember that every once in a while your opponents will call for no reason except they are sick of you.

i know i do.

note: i don't think any of this stuff i wrote in any way makes your AT not a push.

citanul

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I just did the the ICM analysis with SGA, and it turns out that this push is +EV across virtually every set of calling ranges I could come up with. This is definately a push, and the reason is that you have the other two big stacks covered. This means that even if you are called and lose, you still have a shot at the making the money because the other stack is so short.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. If you lose to anyone but the short stack you are all-in for less than the BB next hand and shortie can watch with amusement.

[/ QUOTE ]

i like how you said "wrong" and then did not do anything to contradict the other guy's point.

[Isura]

Not pushing here is terrible without a read that BOTH blinds are maniacs.

[NegativeEV]

ICM says push even if SB/BB call ranges are pretty liberal (which they are for typical $22 players IF you've been aggressive as you say you have).

Additionally, consider what taking these blinds does to the layout of the stacks in play here and what that will mean for the rest of the bubble and ITM play. Before this hand there are three strong stacks, 2700, 2450, 2400. Every one of these stacks can comfortably push into the others to control the bubble. If you take these blinds, the stacks are 3300, 2250, 2000. That really changes the balance of power for the bubble and ITM.

When you take these blinds the 2000 stack is in the SB when you are in BB with 3300 (with the 450 stack still around). This is much different than 2450 / 2700 and will result in you getting more walks in your BB. Additionally when you have such a chip lead the other two mid-stacks will often adopt a "play for 2nd" strategy and will be MORE willing to fold to you continued aggression than if they were even stacked, so this is important in several ways.

I really think this steal at this specific point in the game is really very powerful and really impacts the rest of the game.

[FlyWf]

He didn't go into detail because it's pretty obvious.
ICM doesn't know where the blinds are. You get called and lose you're looking at another coinflip, then if you win that you're in the SB for 1/3 of your stack with shortie mostly allin in the BB.


ICM overvalues your chance of making the money with a 300 chip stack in this situation. If you were UTG+1 and shortie was UTG, this is an easy push, because shortie has to face the coinflip first. In this situation it's still a push, but it's closer. Both stacks should be smart enough to fold and you have a hand that won't be a huge dog if they are loose.

But ICM is not perfect, and this is the sort of situation that it miscalculates. 300 is not just a little worse than 450 if 300 gets the blinds first.

[AliasMrJones]

Pooooosh.