Folding AA here?

[gobboboy]

Just because 27o is the worst hand doesn't mean it's the worst hand against AA. Any ace and any pocket pair is ridiculously dominated by AA in this spot. I can't see him pushing with anything except AK or AA-JJ, in which case you have at LEAST an 80% chance of blowing him away. I like this call.

A question. On the line that says:

"Hero is about 92.5% to qualify"

I don't see how that is right. Where did the stack size forumula you use come from?

What probability theoroms say that for odds/related games based on who plays what cards when, each hand having its own unique calculation (and random for the sake of calculations at this stage), that you can apply such a simple formula to the situation?

I don't see it, and I think it is wrong (but would love to be educated about it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

My vote was for AA only, as you could be a dog with any other hand, and at worst even with another AA hand (though if this were on PokerStars I'm sure someone would board a flush just to spite them [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

The way I see it, idiot big stack is getting called, getting beat, and being one of the two that don't make it, for when he makes this play, and loses, he will be down to 3,600 and out in due course (and both current short stack players LOVE it if this occurs [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

[raptor517]

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Just because 27o is the worst hand doesn't mean it's the worst hand against AA. Any ace and any pocket pair is ridiculously dominated by AA in this spot. I can't see him pushing with anything except AK or AA-JJ, in which case you have at LEAST an 80% chance of blowing him away. I like this call.

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i can see him pushing with just about any 2, as its correct too assuming everyone plays relatively intelligently. holla

[adanthar]

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i can see him pushing with just about any 2, as its correct too assuming everyone plays relatively intelligently. holla

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Nah, it's totally wrong to push any two, and this hand should give you a good idea why. You see the 2+2'ers out here calling with AK? Holla.

[fnurt]

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I call with aces... and I am 100% sure I am right here.

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Nope!

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Copying a question out of a book and then chirping "Nope!" when someone gets a different answer is extremely annoying.

I'm not so sure it's mathematically incorrect to call here. 90+% chance based on chip count seems like it has to be high. In a real world situation, though, if someone is playing kamikaze style that increases the chances of a confrontation not involving you. So it's probably right to fold AA here but I don't say that with a high degree of confidence. Any lesser hand, though, I fold in a heartbeat.

[adanthar]

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I'm not so sure it's mathematically incorrect to call here. 90+% chance based on chip count seems like it has to be high.

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Here's a pretty simple answer for why it is: the short stacks will go all in and the big stacks will eventually call one or both of them, or vice versa. If the shorties' range is a whopping 40/60 dog vs. the big stacks' range when they do get called (after giving up a few percentage points to account for when one calls the other), they will both double up 16% of the time and you will be in some amount of trouble.

In the real world this will happen more often because big stacks are stupid, and therefore, 84% is a nice starting point for a hand you can call with but isn't the end point. You can also narrow the big stack down to some range of hands many of which have an ace in them, which makes AA much better and KK much worse.

So logically, calling with aces is almost certainly right, calling with kings is borderline at best and AK is terrible.

[raptor517]

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i can see him pushing with just about any 2, as its correct too assuming everyone plays relatively intelligently. holla

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Nah, it's totally wrong to push any two, and this hand should give you a good idea why. You see the 2+2'ers out here calling with AK? Holla.

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never said IIII push any 2. i go take a dump, take a shower, rub one out, come back, and have my prize package. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] holla

[nightlyraver]

Remember, we are already 92.5% to qualify. Despite the fact that we are an 81% favorite over KK, we should still fold. The best case is when villian shows AKo-A2o in which case we are a 92% favorite - but this is simply even money! Against A2s we are only a 87% favorite and therefore incorrect in calling.

I like the plan to take a shower and rub one out rather than calling...

[XXXNoahXXX]

The only way I'm folding AA preflop in such a situation is if someone else has called before me. In that case, one person is most likely gone, and the other person will be so high that they won't need to play a single hand to qualify, leaving it for the last 4 of you to sort out the final 3 spots. With 2 of those 4 being shortstacked, I like your odds to outlast at least one of them.

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Remember, we are already 92.5% to qualify.

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Can you please go over how you arrived at this %age, your formula appears too simplistic and pulled out of thin air. Would love to know the probability theories behind that 92.5%, because that simple stack size formula isn't valid that I can see {but hey, i'm very blind often}