close (meaningless?) river decision...

[Nightwish]

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What would you have done if he had raised you? Called? Cause a guy with his stats won't even blink as he raises you with a worse hand on the river.

This is just one reason I don't like your river bet. Getting raised here would suck.

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your your statements are contradictory. and i woudl have not blinked before i called his raise.

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What is contradictory about this? The fact that he's more likely to bluff raise you doesn't mean that he is bluff raising you. You still need to decide that, and your call won't be a pleasant one. If you think it will be, OK, I'm not going to argue with you till I'm blue in the face.

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And why exactly are you afraid of checking to him? Do you think he'll check behind with any worse hand? Come on. He's a LAG, he's HU, and he can practically feel the chips getting pushed his way. In his mind, he's one bet away from getting you to fold.

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and after i raise his bet he'll think "oh i gotta see this"


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Maybe. I haven't even mentioned all the times you just put 2 bets in with a worse hand.

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I'd much rather check and induce a bluff from whatever he has than bet and

(a) risk having to make an ugly call if he raises

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your comment above and my response state its nowhere near an ugly call.

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or

(b) see him fold his worthless hand when he realizes the bluff is over



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or call with K high, any pair, even a worse 8...i still think checking with the intention of calling here is by far and away the worst option.


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Geez man.....you accuse me of not rebutting your reasoning, but then you offer this gem. Do you not agree that he'll bluff bet all the hands you mentioned anyway?

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So here's a question for you. Do you think you're not being even a little bit results-oriented in your post-hand analysis on this one?

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maybe, but the more i think about it, the more i think im not being reesults oriented.


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Because........

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As for preflop, your call is not terrible, but my suspicion is that it's -EV.

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your suspicion is wrong.


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Because.........

[DcifrThs]

its late but in response to the most pressing issues here:

he bets and calls a c'r with A7s, any 7, 66/44, any 5, any pair almost every time.

he bets his bluffs and folds them to the c'r.

he bets his monsters and 3bets my c'r.

he calls A high which he might check behind.

he folds his bluffs toa bet.

with these considerations a c'r is worse than betting. but worth considering. check calling is still imo the worst option b/c he checks behind hands hed call and its not made up enough by the snapping off of bluffs you do here by checking. given the information available in the hand the most valuable river action is betting. then c'ring, then calling.

i dont like the c'r as much as a bet but posted it b/c ITS WORTH CONSIDERING as you should all options. i posted this b/c i thought it was interesting.

as to the pf call this is such the easiest call ever that you are hurting your poker coaching business by arguing its validity.

T8 s -0.13 -0.16 -0.02 -0.07 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.08

again, bold is the sb, 10 handed ev stats from pokerroom's pokerschool. this is in the hands of an average player who loses more. but its compensated by being overall in looser more passive low limit games. but its such a clear clear call losing -.25bbs from doing nothing (folding) to losing -.13bbs from playing that you better produce some serious evidence to convince me or anybody i know and have talked to who agree with me to follow your advice and fold this pf.

in closing, i think betting for value is the best option. check calling is only better than check folding since you gain the bet from the bluff anyway w/ a c'r with a hand that he'd fold fi you value bet. downside of c'r is the threat of a 3bet which he'd do w/ 2 pair and which i REALLY REALLY hate to call.

pf call is really really a no brainer.

poker coaching is probably a better use of your sb playing time if you're folding this there.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

i just recieved a very good, well worded and intelligent PM from nightwish.

id like to take this time to publicly apologize to him for the poor show ive displayed in this thread.

sorry, and i'll make an effort to make sure it wont happen again.

-Barron

[Nietzsche]

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T8 s -0.13 -0.16 -0.02 -0.07 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.08


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Does this figure not come mostly from completing in the sb in 10-handed games at the lower limits? This hand is 4-handed at a high limit and you are calling a raise, which is a completely different situation. Or am I missing something?

[wrto4556]

I really like check/raising.

You get the same amount from bluffs and an extra bet when he calls with worse hands (which is going to be a wide range considering his stats).

Also, I don't think he will 3-bet without something that has you stomped. He might even just call a check/raise with two pair or something.

[DcifrThs]

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T8 s -0.13 -0.16 -0.02 -0.07 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.08


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Does this figure not come mostly from completing in the sb in 10-handed games at the lower limits? This hand is 4-handed at a high limit and you are calling a raise, which is a completely different situation. Or am I missing something?

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this figure comes from every single limit at pokerroom over millions upon millions of hands where any player got T8s where there were 10 people dealt cards.

this includes times its folded to the button and is now HU.

this includes times where everybody limps and sb completes.

this includes times its raised UTG and a bad player calls 1.5 or so sbs cold in the sb.

it inlcludes the times its raised, 3 bet and then capped and the bad player calls all bets cold 4 handed in teh sb w/ T8s.

it includes everything.

my situation was a fish limped. another fish raised the first fish. their hand ranges are extremely large here. T8s is a large favorite vs. their ranges and postflop ability.

-Barron

[catlover]

I think it's a clear check and call situation. CO could easily have you beat with an overpair. Or he could be bluffing with a bigger flush draw.

He has shown a lot of strength, and I can't see your pair of 8s as justifying a value bet into him. Nor is it weak enough to bluff. So check and call.

[charlieD]

i fold preflop
i would be leading at this flop
check call the river

[Gabe]

I seem to have a hard time understanding how these numbers interact. I would think that 48/7/.68 is very loose but pretty passive, and 39/20/1.2 is very agressive before the flop, but only average aggressive after.

[Rick Nebiolo]

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the villians are both very loose and very agressive.

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Isn't 48/7/.68 very loose and somewhat passive preflop, and very passive post flop?

~ Rick

PS I use PT