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#21
08-15-2005, 04:26 PM
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Re: Raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What range of hands do you put villain on the river? [/ QUOTE ] Ew this guy has a PFR of 2.9? Missed that the first time around. 2.9 would include AK in his PFR range though, right? He would definitely raise AA or KK. [/ QUOTE ] A lot of players will raise AK but won't 3bet it. AK is definitely a possibility here. I think just calling is the way to go against an unknown. BB's flop 3bet indicates that he has at least a pair of aces, and since he led the river, he's either a total moron or just filled up. I don't think we can count on him being a total moron. 
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#22
08-15-2005, 04:27 PM
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Re: Raise the river?
Think about the possible reasons he might donk the river. AK and KJ both improved, but not a huge amount. KJ isn't as likely given the stats. A more likely holding is any A/face. She donks the river because her kicker just got bigger. Also, AK and KJ are more likely to ch/r the river here given the turn action. I think I raise is right here.
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#23
08-15-2005, 04:30 PM
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Re: Raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
A lot of players will raise AK but won't 3bet it. AK is definitely a possibility here. [/ QUOTE ] So are a lot of hands - Villain called a raise from the BB, that's not exactly a tight range. Also, the really strong hands will check-raise here as Hero has shown he really likes his hand already and the K isn't really a truly scary card for an aggressive player like our Hero (if villain is observant/thinking). -d
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#24
08-15-2005, 04:30 PM
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Re: Raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
Also, AK and KJ are more likely to ch/r the river here given the turn action. [/ QUOTE ] This is 100% player dependent. Some players like to donk it, others will CR.
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#25
08-15-2005, 04:33 PM
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Re: Raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] A lot of players will raise AK but won't 3bet it. AK is definitely a possibility here. [/ QUOTE ] So are a lot of hands - Villain called a raise from the BB, that's not exactly a tight range. Also, the really strong hands will check-raise here as Hero has shown he really likes his hand already and the K isn't really a truly scary card for an aggressive player like our Hero (if villain is observant/thinking). -d [/ QUOTE ] True. But consider the hands with which he might donk the river. Now look at the subset of those which 3-bet the flop. He isn't doing that with just a pair of kings. So he's either messing around on the river, or filled up. Since his PT stats are pretty tight/fairly passive, I'd say he filled up more often than not.
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#26
08-15-2005, 05:06 PM
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Re: Raise the river?
I think you have to take into account that many players (even those whose stats are not over-agressive) overplay their hands when they're defending from a "button steal". I think it's a clear raise on the river, as I could see a player with any ace play the hand the same way.
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#27
08-15-2005, 09:13 PM
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Re: Raise the river?
hiya toss.
you beat a lot of hands here...i think had he not been big blind, id be more inclined to give him credit for the bigger boat and not a janky king. id raise and call a 3.
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