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#21
08-12-2005, 10:31 AM
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Re: 9/18 AA Hand
[ QUOTE ]
I bet/call. [/ QUOTE ] Fish. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I bet/call. [/ QUOTE ] Idiot! Why do I always have to talk you out of harebrained ideas? Check/fold. [/ QUOTE ] Nit. 
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#23
08-12-2005, 10:34 AM
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Re: 9/18 AA Hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I bet/call. [/ QUOTE ] Idiot! Why do I always have to talk you out of harebrained ideas? Check/fold. [/ QUOTE ] I was going to post "Ghey" but I think the paranoid, religious right might be correct. Possibly "Gay."
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#24
08-12-2005, 10:36 AM
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Re: 9/18 AA Hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] if mp raises, what the hell does he have that doesn't have a Q in it? not saying i'd fold, because i can't fold AA on the river for one bet, but I can't think we're ahead enough. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't bother making the decision that complicated. I know sometimes he'll call with a worse hand, but when you check and he bets you can be pretty damn sure that you're beaten. [/ QUOTE ] So why not check/fold? [/ QUOTE ] How can you honestly check-fold here? When checked to on the river a hand like KJ could totally bet here. And worse hands will call the river bet. [/ QUOTE ] What do you put SB and MP on? [/ QUOTE ] Given that SB capped and then checked the flop, the only hand I can imagine would be AK or JJ (perhaps with the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], though I think very often that hand dumps on the flop). Unless the cap is totally an action play (which, for better or worse, I'm somewhat discounting as a possibility because SB is a woman... so I'm a chauvinist or smoething), I think here range is pretty narrow. The other AA seems unlikely given the flop check. I have to think KK also leads the flop and we could have heard from QQ on the turn most likely. I'm honestly expecting to see AK 85% of the time (with JJ composing a lot of the rest). MP1 limped and then cold-called two, meaning his range is probably quite large here. One of the things that I have a hard time with here is that it would seem that a lot of hands containing Q's would reveal themselves in someway earlier: -AQ would often raise pre-flop -KQ would probably bark back at the turn with top two on a draw-heavy board (though maybe feared the flush) -QJ and worse Q's might not get to the flop because of their weak kickers and might be hesitant to raise on the flop after the pre-flop cap. I also am discounting the likelihood of a flush since we have the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and the turn was not raised. I don't think J9 is in play because we would have heard about it on the turn most likely. TT or another set likely would have barked again as well. Q's are certainly a possibility, and I'd love a read on the players' styles, but I think that MP could have a bunch of stuff. Some of it, including, as mentioned, KJ, might be tempted to bet the river as well. Basically, I just think that metagame considerations make this hard to fold on the river for one bet, and there is enough confusion in how the MP player played his hand that I'm not willing to confidently assign a Q (or better) if he bets the river.
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#25
08-12-2005, 10:39 AM
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Re: 9/18 AA Hand
[ QUOTE ]
Starts with a B, ends with a t. [/ QUOTE ] Perfect. FWIW, I am folding to a MP raise here though. I don't think he's gonna bluffraise the river with his KJ straight draw often enough for me to worry when I've 3-bet the flop, am holding the Ad with a flush on board and a paired board, unless he's a complete lagtard fish. So yeah. I think it's an easy value bet. And I fold to a raise even though I don't like it. Rob
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#26
08-12-2005, 10:52 AM
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Re: 9/18 AA Hand
[ QUOTE ]
I think check - cry-call is best option. If it comes with 2 bets back to you then you can fold. I think it is waste of money to bet this board. Check and hope you get free showdown. [/ QUOTE ] If it checks through and you win, you missed at least one bet from the SB. People who want to check need to reread river play in TOP.
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#27
08-12-2005, 10:55 AM
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Re: 9/18 AA Hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think check - cry-call is best option. If it comes with 2 bets back to you then you can fold. I think it is waste of money to bet this board. Check and hope you get free showdown. [/ QUOTE ] If it checks through and you win, you missed at least one bet from the SB. People who want to check need to reread river play in TOP. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah. Checking is really no good here. You have SB beat here a huge majority of the time. Think of all her calls as an expectational discount to use against the times you are beat by the player behind you.
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#28
08-12-2005, 12:51 PM
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Re: 9/18 AA Hand
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Starts with a B, ends with a t. [/ QUOTE ] Boot? I mean, he had 12 outs to the nuts and an overpair and all, but booting on the table seems excessive and out-of-place, even for Commerce. Save that for the Vegas trip.
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#30
08-12-2005, 01:42 PM
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Re: 9/18 AA Hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] if mp raises, what the hell does he have that doesn't have a Q in it? not saying i'd fold, because i can't fold AA on the river for one bet, but I can't think we're ahead enough. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't bother making the decision that complicated. I know sometimes he'll call with a worse hand, but when you check and he bets you can be pretty damn sure that you're beaten. [/ QUOTE ] Why not check/fold, or check/call which is what I would probably do, because I don't want to fold Aces and don't want to put in two bets on river. I hadn't read the whole thread when I posted. Got stuck somewhere in the middle. My bad.
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