Push crap or wait a hand?

[lastchance]

Yeah.

Ok. So, anyone want to run some ICM calcs on this? Top 80% for BB, top 15% for SB?

Maybe I'm underestimating the stupidity at the $11's here, still, that looks ok, I guess.

[runner4life7]

After watching my roommate play the 11s Ive seen some people miss some calls that i thought would be call with 32o easy because they only know how to play with hands they think are good. Or a lot at this level are still in that wanting to get ITM mode far too often, but I think those numbers are probably fair.

[bennies]

lol

lol

I've never seen such a big -EV move before, it's -7,9%

If I change the calling standards to 15% and 50% it is still a -4,3% move. Only if I move Big stacks range down to about 15% also do we get a breakeven move.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Eastbay, one thing that your analysis did not mention that I think is relevant is the possibility that one of the other two shortstacks makes a move and busts before you do. This is one spot that I have to go against the program and be a little patient.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly when do you think this is going to happen? When you're on your 53o, if you fold, the only possibility is that SB 1) pushes, and 2) is called, and 3) busts. (in the original problem, this also has to be weighed against the possibility that SB pushes, is called, and doubles, since BB is going to call with a lot of crap.)

Since here BB is calling for all his chips and SB is pushing for all of his with a short stack at the table two hands from the blind, you might just stab at this and say SB would push a top third hand (although he should push more), BB would call with about top 10%. That's 3.3% of a push and a call. Assuming no split pots (which makes the effect even less important), your equity jumps to 27% with a bust. This is about a .3% boost over your nominal equity. This is basically the same as what you lose in giving up position and pushing the next hand.

On the next hand, you're UTG. You can't see if somebody's going in first ahead of you.

Are you advocating folding twice and taking the blind?

eastbay

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you disregard the actual stack for this problem?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on what "this problem" is. OP posted a hand but seemed interested in a more general question than this particular hand.

I separated issues of cards vs. position to address that independently.

[ QUOTE ]

How can you say that .2% ICM towards not folding is "quite clear" for folding now?


[/ QUOTE ]

For the reasons I stated. What wasn't clear about it? I gave the poster 32o. Clearly the difference only increases from there. It also only increases with the loss of respect. It's a general principle I'm pointing out, getting caught up in specifics is to miss the point of the analysis.

Considering the possibility of a SB push and bust is an interesting question. If someone wants to actually work that part out rather than wave hands at it, that would be cool. Actually, I already did it. It's almost enough to make the difference for 32o in particular, making it a wash.

The point is that people in this thread were overvaluing their cards and undervaluing their loss of position (not even mentioning it), and I wanted to point that out.

[ QUOTE ]

The point is, when you judge the actual stack sizes in the problem I think it will be clear to wait a hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Could be - that's a different question that was given for homework.

eastbay

[EnderFFX]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'm still trying to figure out this bubble aggression/desperation thing. Sorry if this is too n00bish, but it's probably my biggest weakness right now...

$10+1
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

BB (t4101)
UTG (t1256)
Hero (t1230)
SB (t1413)

Preflop:Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

UTG folds, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have to push here because this is the last hand that you will have any fold equity left. Next hand a short stack is in for the BB and you are under the gun. If you push then, he already has 1/3 of his stack in the pot, and will probably have a huge calling range. (Ax, Kx, Qx, two broadway, any pair, maybe even two of the same suit) If you push you also have one extra person to go through to steal the blinds.

Push now, pray BB doesn't have a pair when he calls.

[lastchance]

I think that is what we are advocating, and in this spot, where SB is going to need to pick up chips, where UTG is going to also have to pay almost a third of his stack, and this is before we are.

Unless you pick up a good hand, or from the UTG, a very good hand, I think we are advocating waiting a few hands and seeing the blind. In fact, with a shortstack that is just one position before us, I think it's a great idea to try to fold ITM here.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that is what we are advocating, and in this spot, where SB is going to need to pick up chips, where UTG is going to also have to pay almost a third of his stack, and this is before we are.

Unless you pick up a good hand, or from the UTG, a very good hand, I think we are advocating waiting a few hands and seeing the blind. In fact, with a shortstack that is just one position before us, I think it's a great idea to try to fold ITM here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're confusing the original chip stacks with the ones I used for my analysis now of weighing cards vs. position.

There's no folding into the money when you've got half the chips of everybody else at the table.

eastbay

[lastchance]

Aite. I thought you were advocating this strategy for this particular situation, not your hypothetical one.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Aite. I thought you were advocating this strategy for this particular situation, not your hypothetical one.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, that's why I pointed out that a reader should reconsider the problem with the actual stacks and all that goes along with it.

eastbay