Determining if Im getting unlucky or outplayed.

[SteamingFish]

I wish we had a bad beat section where people could post, if only because I could finally contribute regularly. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Last night in my first 20 minutes of play I had three hands where I lost with top two pair or better to a rivered inside straight heads-up. Several hundred hands later, I finally got a couple straights of my own -- at the same time. Both rivered by full houses in huge, multiway pots. Kings lose to Aces, Aces lose to Jacks(!), flushes lose to straight flushes, full houses in gigantic pots lose to quads, the list goes on and on (and on!) At one point I was down 25BB in a single session just in straights and flushes.

I take solace (a very wee amount) in the fact that I had one day where I felt like I had "normal" results and won a lot of money. Also, my stats are slowly converging on those found in the post that someone linked to above.

I guess there's no point to my post, other than to say, there's always someone unluckier than you -- ME! Keep playing the best you can, keep studying, results don't matter, yada yada yada.

[callydrias]

There's some good discussion about how to play against flush draws in this thread. You might want to check it out.

[steamboatin]

I am going to second shant's opinion that you don't understand poker. The only way for your big pairs to be in the negative is for you to seriously overplay them when you are beat.

AA, KK, QQ are not long term losers in any game. You have to be spewing chips when you are behind. Once these "terrible" players make the mistake of calling a capped pot preflop with weak hands, they are no longer making a mistake to continue with a draw because the pot is big.

The swings are huge in a loose game but it is very easy to be in denial about your own poker skills. I have the authority to speak in this subject because I am guilty of overestimating my own abilites.

The thing that puzzles me, is that you have been playing eight hours aday for quite sometime. It seems that if you always played badly, you would have been broke a long time ago. I think your play may have changed and you don't realize that you are playing badly. It is very easy to let your play slip and not realize it but it could just be a bad downswing, no one can answer that question except you.

[oreogod]

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How fast are you dropping 100BB is a concern. It sounds like you're doing it within ~500 hand -- even at 6max, this is not variance.

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After running 4BB/100 for 11K hands, I lost 68BB in 450 hands. :-P

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That happens sometimes. Sucks when it does. But OP dropped 200bb in one day. I think thats a little excessive.

For me personally, I've had a terrible time at 0.5/1 and 1/2 dropped 2000 BB over 4-5 Months. However, I decided one day that I was going to deposit the 300BB needed for 2/4 and play solely at that limit, and ever since then my results have been pretty good(atleast by my standards), 2.3 BB/hr over 20K hands so far. I've since recovered all my losses in about 3-4 weeks.

0.5/1, 1/2 in online play and 2/4, 3/6 in live play are crapshoots for the most part in my experience(because of the sheer number of people seeing a flop, some idiot is always gonna crack your aces).

One thing to bear in mind though is that in any "normal" 2/4 session 4-tabling, your AA/KK hands are gonna get cracked a few times a night, so you really need to do something for the steaming before you get back into play, i usually get up punch the wall real hard and then sit back down and play my normal game. Dont know if this helps. Hope it did!

[PokerFoo]

Yes. I have been playing every day for almost 3 years now and I have not gone broke. I have, in fact, been playing on one single buy-in and not had to re-load yet. Paid a few bills and bought myself a few odds and ends along the way as well. That alone is proof to myself that I am not too far off base in my game.

My problem is that the more I learn about poker the worse I am getting. SSH has completely bunked my game and I am now working on grinding back a stake.

I used to play very strictly to how Lee jones recomended in the second edition of his book. I was making small profits playing this way. Very tight, probably viewed as 'weak tight' to many of you. However, Playing this way allowed me to trap and maximize my good hands on 4th and 5th street and get away from other questionable spots by folding or taking a small loss instead of a big one. My varience was low and my overall profits small but they were profits none-the-less.

Since learning about many situations that are +EV for me over the long haul I have been staying in where I normally would not. My old style would check and call or even fold when the hyper aggressive flush and open ended draws would start raising and capping their own draws. I would often get out having the best hand, at the time, because I knew it would be costing me a lot to stay in as a slim favorite only.

After reading SSH I have been staying in and 4 betting my Big pairs in those same spots and it's costing me a ton of money. The bigger the pots the more players stay in with gutshot, flush and even middle pair hoping to catch 2 pair. From what I have experienced this is bad. Heads up this may be good for me but KK against 3 or 4 players staying to the end, who are all drawing to 'somthing', has had huge negative profites for me. It's also very hard to fold to one last bet on 5th street to a 'possable' better hand when the pot is huge and I have so much equity in the pot myself.
My varience has gone through the roof. I am not able to see a showdown without 3 or 4 others seeing it with me and my profit has sunk.

I appreaciate the help and links to some more info by the ones who offered it up. I have been reviewing it and plan to try some different things. I resent the others who just spew that my questions are just bad beat stories. It's as if they need to make themselves feel superior by both not offering any advice and wasting my time and thiers commenting on how bad a player I am because Im not winning with big premium pairs. If you dont have anything constructive to add then please don't add anything at all.

I posted those few hands not as bad beats tales but as examples of the common situation that is costing me the most money in my game. I had hoped I could get advice on these hand types.

Wrong or right, I am going discard the SSH advice and go back to the more passive aggressive style Lee recomends against players who like to cap the betting with drawing hands when I hold these Big pairs. I will keep the pots as small as possable until 4th and 5th street and hopefully get back on my game.

Thanks.

[crunchy1]

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Wrong or right, I am going discard the SSH advice and go back to the more passive aggressive style Lee recomends

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So what are your screennames for the sites/limits that you play on?

[shant]

So you're not willing to learn or find out what you're doing wrong, and instead will go back to your set-in ways of play that even you consider weak-tight? Great plan.

Why not post more hands that you aren't sure you played correctly and get specific feedback on the hand. Also, read other hand posts and participate in the discussions. You're not going to get better by avoiding variance and shunning advice.

[Onaflag]

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I resent the others who just spew that my questions are just bad beat stories.

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I believe I was first, then shant, then steamboatin. I stand by my reply. You are emotional right now and cannot see clearly. Before you piss off respectable posters (I am not one of them), I would smoke a joint, relax, and seriously ponder what has happened to your game.

One almost gets the feeling you're about to snap and say that flush draws are somehow fixed to come in more than their fair share of the time. Don't yell at me for that statement. Reread your posts.

People here want to help you, but until you are willing to receive that help, you're only screwing yourself by not listening. Again, take a break from playing for a few days. Get into the numbers and figure out why your getting big pocket pairs snapped so often. There is a reason. That I promise.

Try going back to "weak-tight" where you were profitable and integrate SSH one concept at a time. One guess I may have is that you tried to incorporate too many changes too fast. You'll have a hard time finding the root cause by suddenly switching styles like that. Go back to what you know wins a little and find leaks FROM THAT POINT. Your life will be much more enjoyable.

Onaflag..........

[Derek in NYC]

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I have been playing 8 hours a day for 2 years and I have broken even over the long haul.

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If this is true, you are a losing player and should quit.