TT Hand, Play Along

[DeathDonkey]

If I could show this hand down for 2.5 BB I would be ok with that. On the other hand if it will cost much more than that I probably have odds to chase a 2 outer. Check, find a way to see the turn, then decide what to do. I do not cap preflop.

-DeathDonkey

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Now you still have no idea if you're beat, since AA-JJ as well as AK and possibly AQs are all in his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this. You actually know that there's a strong chance you're beat (24 ways of making AA-JJ vs. 12 ways of making AK/AQs), and if you're not beat MP1 has clean outs to draw out on you. I think with a pot this big you have to stay in it, but I don't see Hero having a reasonable chance of winning UI, and you want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
I do not cap preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm very surprised.

Edit: Especially since you have far more than the 14% equity you need in order to do this just for value. (Well, not far more ,probably 15-16%). Also, you have enormous implied odds if you hit your set.

[MrWookie47]

Agreed. I wouldn't mind showing this hand down for 2.5 BB in this ridiculous pot. Hero will almost have odds to cold call this flop on set odds alone, especially since his implied odds are great.

I still don't like capping preflop. If you're ahead of AK, you aren't exactly going to be able to fold him if he whiffs, and you're still just as likely to be behind JJ-AA. I like knowing that I'm very likely drawing to 2 outs here.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now you still have no idea if you're beat, since AA-JJ as well as AK and possibly AQs are all in his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this. You actually know that there's a strong chance you're beat (24 ways of making AA-JJ vs. 12 ways of making AK/AQs), and if you're not beat MP1 has clean outs to draw out on you. I think with a pot this big you have to stay in it, but I don't see Hero having a reasonable chance of winning UI, and you want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are there only 12 ways to make AK/AQs?

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are there only 12 ways to make AK/AQs?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I was misapplying pair math. 20 ways to make AK/AQs. Making it 6:5 you're behind, instead of 2:1.

I'm actually thinking it's about 9:8 because with a player this tight I'm pulling JJ and AQs out of his range of hands. Regardless, the chances are that you're behind once he caps preflop, and I don't think it'll help you much if you capped instead of him.

[baronzeus]

Another thing to note here is that with 7 people in the pot you should widen your capping range. I would probably cap almost any pocket pair here the more I think about it, as well as some suited combinations.

[WSOP Bound]

I tend to like the check/call line as well. We can't be convinced that we have the best hand here, most likely we are second or even third best. That being said this would have to get three bet before it comes back to us before the implied odds indicate that we should fold this two-outer.

[bozlax]

True, but are you going to give a player with a 13.5% VPIP credit for doing that, when there was only one limper before his initial early-position raise? That also increases the chances that there are overcards to your pair in play, while decreasing that chances that will be able to fold anyone.

I still say Hero shouldn't cap this preflop OOP, and should be trying to get to showdown for as little of his money going into the pot as possible.

[baronzeus]

No, I'm saying that hero here should cap for shear value.