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#21
07-28-2005, 02:35 PM
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Re: AK problem
[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. You should never bet in the last position if you would hate your opponent raising you back. You would have the draw to the nuts but not the odds to call it. Also you would not have any idea if your hand was ahead or not. This is really simple poker theory and nothing at all to do with "inducing a bluff". TPTK is just not that strong in NL poker. [/ QUOTE ] Okay, help me out--what's the thinking here? Are we that afraid of a slowplayed set? Or is it just that we don't want to commit a lot of chips to TPTK in any case in NL? (Because, say, even slim odds that some chucklehead stayed in with K7 vs our raise mean that we could lose more chips than we could ever win?) I must need more fundamental changes in my thinking, because I see a situation like this and my mouth starts to water. To me, if I bet and I'm raised, I still think, "Cool! Somebody has KQo!" Do I need to start thinking, "Uh-oh, a set..." or, "Uh-oh, I can't risk all my chips with just one pair?" Is this a tourney-specific adjustment? 
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#23
07-28-2005, 02:49 PM
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Re: AK problem
[ QUOTE ]
Do I need to start thinking, "Uh-oh, a set..." or, "Uh-oh, I can't risk all my chips with just one pair?" Is this a tourney-specific adjustment? [/ QUOTE ] That's why I said it matters whether my opponent is an idiot or not. There are opponents where it is correct to bet this turn, that is almost never the case against good opponents. If you bet this turn in an $11, it is never a big mistake. If you bet this turn in a $215, it is almost always a big mistake.
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#24
07-28-2005, 03:19 PM
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Re: AK problem
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Do I need to start thinking, "Uh-oh, a set..." or, "Uh-oh, I can't risk all my chips with just one pair?" Is this a tourney-specific adjustment? [/ QUOTE ] That's why I said it matters whether my opponent is an idiot or not. There are opponents where it is correct to bet this turn, that is almost never the case against good opponents. If you bet this turn in an $11, it is never a big mistake. If you bet this turn in a $215, it is almost always a big mistake. [/ QUOTE ] Got it. So, I'm playing in a $215, and I don't bet the turn, because I can't handle that raise. Am I not betting the turn primarily because <ul type="square">1) I actually fear that my stronger-than-the-11s opponent will have a good chance of having me beaten with a set; or, 2) I only have TPTK, my opponent probably knows it, and knows I can't call a raise with it, and it doesn't matter what he has?[/list] I realize that those two things go hand in hand; I'm just trying to zero in on the actual thinking (and the villain's). Would things change if I didn't have the flush draw? Would I then bet and fold to a raise?
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#25
07-28-2005, 03:25 PM
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Re: AK problem
You're not betting the turn because:
1) You can't call a raise 2) You have showdown value 3) Free cards almost never hurt you 4) You might induce a bluff on the river 5) If you are already beaten you have a strong draw 6) You never get called by a hand you beat 7) Hands you beat might bet river because you checked behind on turn 8) You have all the above reasons not to bet, and no reason that compensates. The only reason you might bet the turn is to try to get a hand like KQ, KJ, QQ get allin with you. But that won't happen against a player who has a brain if you bet this turn. By checking they might bet the river, but they won't call a river raise if you beat them most of the time but will call with all hands that beat you. In short, checking the turn wins more chips when you are ahead and loses the least when you are behind.
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#26
07-28-2005, 03:33 PM
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Re: AK problem
Excellent... All those things make sense to me.
So we still think we're strong, but that we're either well ahead or way behind... I guess this is where my HEFAP kicks in... I'm still living in SSHE-land. Another question--how does "showdown value" differ from just having a strong (made) hand, or are they the same thing? I've seen the term around a bit, and I wonder if there's some nuance I'm missing. Thanks for your patience (and sorry if I've hijacked the thread)
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#28
07-28-2005, 04:16 PM
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Re: AK problem
This is good stuff, thanks! I hope you don't mind, but what next?
You check behind and the river is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], presumably no help to either of you. Caller bets 2/3 pot bet - what do you do? Have you induced a bluff or are you way behind or doesn't it matter? You didn't make your flush so is this always a fold unless the bet is a minbet?
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#30
07-28-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: QQ with A-T-T flop
Against a loose player (especially passive), I'll bet the turn for value.
Against a cagey player, I'll check and let him bluff some more chips to me on the river. If I bet the turn, he'll either fold (I get no chips), or check raise me off the pot. Somewhere in between? Line 2.
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