K8s: worth a stab at this on the river?

[Entity]

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I didn't have enough hands on SB for his AF stats to really mean anything, So I'd say a reasonable range for him to 3-bet me is AJ-JT, and xs6s, with the small possibiliy of some overplayed draw. I can't run the numbers right now, since I don't have access to PS at the moment.

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Knowing that the J and 5 were [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]s would have helped when you described the hand.

The biggest problem I have with your line is that you didn't have a read that would suggest it'll work. I tend to make these bluff-raises and river bluffs based on reads, not based on a lack of them.

Rob

[brettbrettr]

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Against the right opponent, sure, but I don't like the "test" theory very much at all. You should know whether or not a play has merit before you make it.

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I can't think of a better time to "test" a play like this than in a hand where Hero likely has 15 outs to win, and the villian is likely to either check/call or check/fold the river any time one of them shows.

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Fair enough, but if you'd seen the guy fold to trun raises before no testing would be needed. That's all I'm saying.

[MHarris]

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No way he's folding top pair (a non-monster) here after 3-betting the flop. No way.

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I have to disagree with you there. There's plenty of tight players who would make that laydown when faced with the prospect of paying another two bets to get to showdown when raised on a coordinated board.

[Nick C]

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I don't understand why you raised the turn.

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I figure to have at least a small equity edge with both draws plus an overcard, plus my opponent is tight and likely pretty sensible, so I may have some FE if he doesn't have a monster.

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In terms of showdown value, your opponent has an equity edge over you on the turn (with only one card to come) if he holds a hand as good as pocket twos.

[GrunchCan]

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I didn't have enough hands on SB for his AF stats to really mean anything, So I'd say a reasonable range for him to 3-bet me is AJ-JT, and xs6s, with the small possibiliy of some overplayed draw. I can't run the numbers right now, since I don't have access to PS at the moment.

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If this is your read, then raising the turn & betting the river have no value whatsoever. This dude will probably call with virtually any made hand. I would say however if you don't have enough hands to know what the opponent's AF stats are then 1) you also don't have enough hands to know how tight the opponent is versus how cold-decked he has been, and 2) you rely too much on stats, IMO.

[brettbrettr]

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No way he's folding top pair (a non-monster) here after 3-betting the flop. No way.

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I have to disagree with you there. There's plenty of tight players who would make that laydown when faced with the prospect of paying another two bets to get to showdown when raised on a coordinated board.

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I just don't see it that often. Like Rob said, reads that justify plays > plays you make to get a better read.

[MHarris]

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The biggest problem I have with your line is that you didn't have a read that would suggest it'll work. I tend to make these bluff-raises and river bluffs based on reads, not based on a lack of them.


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When I have a player read as tight, I tend to assume that they are capable of making some thin laydowns. I know this isn't always necessarily true, but we don't always have all the information we'd like to. That being said, I felt this opponent was capable of making that sort of laydown, given that info plus the action of the hand may well indicate to him that there's a good chance he's drawing thin/dead.