Fold pocket queens?!

[UATrewqaz]

Villian has AA, AK, or KK me thinks.

[droolie]

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On the flop there are 5BB's in the pot before you act. Call this down and you only need to win 1/3 of the time to show a healthy profit. You will often be behind a pf capper here but losing a pot you should have one and paying to do it is a pretty big mistake. With call/ call/call you only pay 1.5BB more over the raise/ fold line and you give villian zero chance to get you to fold a better hand and get to see his hand at the end. This is my default against unknowns. Give me a solid read and I might raise the flop and fold cheaply to a 3-bet.

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Nothing wrong with that.

But against a generic UTG preflop capper, I give credit for stronger hands: AA-JJ, AK, AQs, and KQs.

AA (6 ways) = 2 outs
KK (3 ways) = 0 outs
QQ (1 way) = push
JJ (6 ways) = I'm winning
AK (12 ways) = 2 outs
AQs (2 ways) = I'm winning
KQs (3 ways) = 1 out

So there are 24 ways I'm screwed, 8 ways I'm winning, and 1 way tie. According to my count, I'm losing 75% of the time. I'm happy to invest the 1 BB right away to take this pot now, but if he shows continued interest in it, I can let it go.

As I said before, backdoor draws add value to the call/call/call line because you have cards that you pick up on the turn that make you want to see the river. If you've got bricks and he keeps firing, you recognize that it's less likely he's got nothing and that you're paying off a better hand.

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I see your point but disagree in this example.

You realize 75% is close to the breakeven point right? Against an unknown if it's even close I'm hanging around. If you add even one more hand combination you will certainly show a profit here. Also consider that when villian capped it was already HU. That makes his range a little bigger.

I think there are many times to fold this hand before SD but HU this situation is not the time.

[eviljeff]

either calling the 3bet on the flop was wrong, or folding the turn was wrong.

[Aaron W.]

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On the flop there are 5BB's in the pot before you act. Call this down and you only need to win 1/3 of the time to show a healthy profit. You will often be behind a pf capper here but losing a pot you should have one and paying to do it is a pretty big mistake. With call/ call/call you only pay 1.5BB more over the raise/ fold line and you give villian zero chance to get you to fold a better hand and get to see his hand at the end. This is my default against unknowns. Give me a solid read and I might raise the flop and fold cheaply to a 3-bet.

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Nothing wrong with that.

But against a generic UTG preflop capper, I give credit for stronger hands: AA-JJ, AK, AQs, and KQs.

AA (6 ways) = 2 outs
KK (3 ways) = 0 outs
QQ (1 way) = push
JJ (6 ways) = I'm winning
AK (12 ways) = 2 outs
AQs (2 ways) = I'm winning
KQs (3 ways) = 1 out

So there are 24 ways I'm screwed, 8 ways I'm winning, and 1 way tie. According to my count, I'm losing 75% of the time. I'm happy to invest the 1 BB right away to take this pot now, but if he shows continued interest in it, I can let it go.

As I said before, backdoor draws add value to the call/call/call line because you have cards that you pick up on the turn that make you want to see the river. If you've got bricks and he keeps firing, you recognize that it's less likely he's got nothing and that you're paying off a better hand.

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I see your point but disagree in this example.

You realize 75% is close to the breakeven point right? Against an unknown if it's even close I'm hanging around. If you add even one more hand combination you will certainly show a profit here. Also consider that when villian capped it was already HU. That makes his range a little bigger.

I think there are many times to fold this hand before SD but HU this situation is not the time.

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If villain has the guts to cap preflop and 3-bet a Kxx flop with a hand worse than QQ (JJ/AQs), he deserves this pot.

And I know it's close. That's why I keep going back to the fact that backdoor draws changes this play. This could possibly be an experience thing, but I've never run into a villain who is aggressive enough to do that whose play hasn't stood out as generally over-aggressive.

Suppose hero has KK and the flop were Axx. Now hero has the call-call-call edge because villain could be betting QQ and JJ. But I think there are enough things bad about this board to make getting out a higher priority than showing down.

[MATT111]

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Villian has AA, AK, or KK me thinks.

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Do you fold the flop?