The EV of a continuation bet

[Mark1808]

The continuation bet really works best for the tight player who raises on a tight range of hands. Lets say the tight player raises only on pairs 88 - AA: AK & AQ. Half the time the Q hits our tight player will have top pair or better. A caller in position will be putting half the money into the pot for a 50 -50 shot. With another caller he will be putting in 1/3 of the money (2 -1) but against another tight player its a 75% chance one of them will have top pair or better.

Even if rags hit the flop our tight player is 30% to 57% to have high pair or better given his range of raising hands.

If you discover that a player is raising on a much wider range of hands and making continuation bets then it may be a plus EV play to call in position with any two cards. I just don't see how it would be a plus EV play to call a player who raises only on a select group of hands.