How to play this bottom set

[kf4915]

Limp for cheap, which you did not do, if you hit, push.

[9cao]

I understand what you said. You are supposed to respond "It is awful for the following reasons......." or "I make X BB's every time I get 22 in MP..........".

With 4-5 players still left please tell me why folding 22 when it is folded to you is so bad?

I went all-in. Both called.

They showed AA and KK and I stacked them both.
Both said they thought I was on a draw.

[LetYouDown]

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If both players have PP's, and you hit your set it is going to be set over set something not far under 20% (by river) of the time

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You hold 2-2 and your opponent holds a random pocket pair, say J-J. The odds that the board will contain at least one J and at least one 2 should be:

[C(2,1) * C(2,1) * C(46,3)]/C(48,5) = 60720/1712304 or 3.55% roughly. Not exactly just under 20%.

[9cao]

Thanks for the math Einstein, but I think you missed a couple things. Since you are so smart I will let you figure it out.

[The Bear]

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With 4-5 players still left please tell me why folding 22 when it is folded to you is so bad?

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You're right. That post of mine was pretty worthless.

I'll list a few compelling reasons why folding is bad, calling is meh, and raising is right. This list is not even close to complete.

1) Pocket pairs are the nuts in NL hold 'em. You WANT to play them when the circumstances are favorable. And the conditions are delightful here.

2) If you aren't opening with small/medium pairs in MP when it is folded to you, then what are you opening with? AA-TT? You need to be opening with a number of hands in this spot to make your hands more difficult to read. Otherwise, you will get destroyed by reverse implied odds.

3) By raising, you start to build a big pot. That's a very good thing when you have a PP.

4) When you raise, you will often end up against 1-2 players, and you can take the pot down with a continuation bet. Even better is when you are just called by the blinds, so now you get to play a pot in position with a deceptive hand and momentum. IT DOESN'T GET BETTER THAN THAT IN NL.

That's all I feel like writing. Think about it and you'll probably come up with 10 more good reasons to open in this spot.

The Bear

[gomberg]

[ QUOTE ]
You hold 2-2 and your opponent holds a random pocket pair, say J-J. The odds that the board will contain at least one J and at least one 2 should be:

[C(2,1) * C(2,1) * C(46,3)]/C(48,5) = 60720/1712304 or 3.55% roughly. Not exactly just under 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a bad assumption. In general, if you have a low set and get called by an overpair, you'll still lose the hand roughly 20% of the time... Use pokerstove and do some experimentation - what you discover may disturb you.

Hence why he is correct in stating that calling w/ 22 there is a mistake (for the raise at least) barring other factors...

[THATWACOKID]

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In general, if you have a low set and get called by an overpair, you'll still lose the hand roughly 20% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]


Assuming there are no flush/straight draws this is wrong.

[9cao]

Just to clear things up here is what I said. Pre-flop you have 22. You see the flop against 2 other PP's (not that crazy given the big preflop raise). You flopped a set.

I estimated that you will lose here 20% of the time. The other two PP's have 2 cards on the flop to hit their combined 4 outs (minus times they both hit...bla, bla, bla), plus big PP's can hit on the turn or river and also make running flush or straights.

[gomberg]

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Assuming there are no flush/straight draws this is wrong.

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Right - but how will you know that before the flop?

Try this out on pokerstove

you have 22, 2 opponents have (AA-JJ).

Flop includes a 2

22 wins only 68%. Against 1 opponent, 22 only wins 80%.

Also include that you won't stack everytime you do get the set, and this call becomes very marginal preflop. You really need the opponents to suck and stacks to be pretty deep (which may be here).