Set of Aces on VERY scary board...or I am very WEAK... - Page 3

Aaron W. · #21 07-20-2005, 02:52 AM

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3Ks, 3Ts, 3Js, A, and 4Qs to likely split the pot

Am I missing any here? Not sure how I should be discounting here

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To start discounting outs, think about the sorts of hands you are most likely up against.

Aaron W. · #22 07-20-2005, 02:53 AM

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[ QUOTE ]
3Ks, 3Ts, 3Js, A, and 4Qs to likely split the pot

Am I missing any here? Not sure how I should be discounting here

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Discount your outs because you think they won't improve you to the best hand -- not because you think they're already used in your opponents' hole cards. I think you have 10.2 outs here, maybe discounting the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] a bit. Three kings, three jacks, and three tens will all give you the second-best possible hand. One ace will give you the nuts. Three queens will split the pot five ways and one will usually split the pot five ways.

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Why not use hand-reading to help you count your outs?

istewart · #23 07-20-2005, 02:54 AM

I saw you play this hand. I was waiting on line. Nice river BTW. Freaking huge pot as well. Aces full vs. the nut straight vs. kings full vs. three jacks -- niiicceeee.

Eeegah · #24 07-20-2005, 02:54 AM

(grunching)

You may be behind right now, but you've got a whole bunch of outs to the near nuts here: 1 for the Ace, 12 for anything pairing. A queen could also fall, although you'll still lose a small amount there thanks to the rake.

A Pokerstove estimate says you have 36% equity right now; you can raise for value--as you should have done on the flop.

arsixsixwy · #25 07-20-2005, 02:55 AM

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Why not use hand-reading to help you count your outs?

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Because, mathematically, it doesn't matter.

Maurader1 · #26 07-20-2005, 02:58 AM

I imagined fd, and made straight during the hand...but now that I think about it, KK/JJ/TT/QQ are also possibilities
so even if a K/J/T falls, I can still have the second best hand, and would have to pay off hugely. But since there is already KJT on the board, the probability of the opponent holding KK/JJ/TT is decreased. Given these factors, would it be appropriate to discount each of these outs to half an out?

Aaron W. · #27 07-20-2005, 02:59 AM

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Why not use hand-reading to help you count your outs?

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Because, mathematically, it doesn't matter.

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Mathematically, it does matter, because you can put villains on hands in a very reasonable way in this case. You would be incredibly hard-pressed to name a situation where *NOBODY* has any of the cards you want to consider to be outs. In the post that you linked, the idea that "if somebody has a set I need to discount my outs". Hero was discounting his outs by 15% on a remote possibility. It's *NOT* the case here that someone holding an ace, king, queen, jack, or ten is a remote possibility.

Maurader1 · #28 07-20-2005, 03:00 AM

Lol...did u also like how I left right when it got to my big blind? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

arsixsixwy · #29 07-20-2005, 03:05 AM

The point is that once you start making assumptions about other hands, the traditional x / 46 calculation (where x is your number of outs) is an inaccurate way to view your chances of making a winning hand.

Aaron W. · #30 07-20-2005, 03:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I imagined fd, and made straight during the hand...but now that I think about it, KK/JJ/TT/QQ are also possibilities
so even if a K/J/T falls, I can still have the second best hand, and would have to pay off hugely. But since there is already KJT on the board, the probability of the opponent holding KK/JJ/TT is decreased. Given these factors, would it be appropriate to discount each of these outs to half an out?

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You can also consider two pair hands as a possibility. I would look at this situation and guess that with 4 other players in the pot, you probably have 3 or 4 dead outs. I'm not concerned about getting a second place hand here, I'm concerned that other players hold at least some of the cards I want to count as outs. The queen outs count as one out because it's ending in a multi-way split pot. Of your ten remaining possible outs, you probably only have 6 or 7 live ones. That's not enough to raise for equity (you would need a very full table for that), but more than enough to call due to pot odds.