AQ River

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet, if he raies, then you re-raise.

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]is that a bluff?

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
is that a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

How can betting into the pre-flop donk raiser on the river and then re-raising if he raises be a bluff? CCD has the best hand here at least over 80% of the time IMHO, so a re-raise is for value.

Lawrence

[DcifrThs]

this is very clear. that ace changed nothing unless he has exactly KK which he'd proabably slow down w/ after getting limp reraised and 5 bet AND checkraised on the turn and STILL 3 bet.

it looks like QQ/JJ. i check call this river even though my first instinct says he has QJ. anything else to me would be spewing.

-Barron

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
is that a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

How can betting into the pre-flop donk raiser on the river and then re-raising if he raises be a bluff? CCD has the best hand here at least over 80% of the time IMHO, so a re-raise is for value.

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]

Well now that u know the guy will run this way with QJ, sure. But before hand with no reads, besides active, decent player, Id seriously doubt hes good 80 percent.

When I first looked at the hand, without the preflop action, the villian having QJ is pretty plausible, but when u put in the preflop action, I thought it was more likely the guy had AK-AQ, AA-JJ, maybe even TT. Now that u know he will do this with QJ makes things easier in the future. CDC checking on the river, Im guessing was thinking the same thing.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet, if he raies, then you re-raise.

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]

just curious lawrence, what hand ranges do you put him on, betting the river, and then what range do you put him on when he raises the river?

[Lawrence Ng]

There are way too many hands in his range that he is trying to push hard with to push you around if he's the type to isolate you on the button with raises. Off the top of my head I could imagine almost any pocket pair, AK down to Ax, KQ down to Kx.

I find it hard to see a "decent" player slowplaying a set on that coordinated board on the flop getting fancy after the pot is already inflated. So I rule a set here to be unlikely.

On the turn, I've probably narrowed his hand down to AQ, KQ or Qx, possibly AJ, and slight chance for 66 or 77 (maybe 10%, 15% here at most). I do not put him on JJ, QQ, KK or AA at this point. His post flop play doesn't smell like a set as I mentioned, and since he did just stop to call you preflop after you raised, I don't think it's very likely for him to have AA or KK.

The river is an easy bet IMHO because I've narrowed him down to hands that I have him dominated over hands he has me dominated with. I'm playing the percentages here and given the action and my reads/analysis it favors me. If he has 66 or turned 77 for the sets, all the power to him, but I trust my reads and I'm gonna bop him and rebop him till proven otherwise.

Lawrence

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it hard to see a "decent" player slowplaying a set on that coordinated board on the flop getting fancy after the pot is already inflated. So I rule a set here to be unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't buy this as a sure fire way to eliminate QQ or JJ. As such, if I lead the river and am still raised, I'm really not buying it.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyhow. I checked intending to call. He checked behind and his QJ was not good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I would have done the same, but only because I am not disciplined enough to bet/fold and I'd definately want to showdown. You seem to be better at folding in these spots, so I am surprised you checked. What was your rationale? Did you just decide you needed to look him up, and only wanted to pay 1 bet to do it? Just curious.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
this is very clear. that ace changed nothing unless he has exactly KK
-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

This obviously is not true. I thinmk QJs and 67s are 2 of the more likely hands for his opponent.
I think betting and calling a raise is fine in this spot. You will lose sometimes, but you will also get raised and get shown AJ and QJ. Checking just costs you too many bets when he checks behind. I guess you will pick off some bluffs by check/calling when he had a flush draw on the turn but the flush hands don't seem that likely.

[hockey1]

[ QUOTE ]
CCD has the best hand here at least over 80% of the time IMHO, so a re-raise is for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

CDC surely doesn't have the best hand here anywhere near 80% of the time when he's raised on the river after the previous action in the hand.