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#22
07-12-2005, 03:59 PM
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Re: Laying down a set
[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the turn here for sure. somthing like 40 or 50. I think villian has an ace and wants to show it down...however given the action on the turn he probably figures he has the best of it and decided to bet the river. [/ QUOTE ] I was sort of thinking this as Villian could have AQ. But I think he'd bet the flop with this. I could see him playing AJ in this manner. I think you have an argument for laying this hand down if you bet the turn and folded to a c/r or a c/c and river lead out by villian, but as you played it, folding is a bad play. 
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#23
07-12-2005, 03:59 PM
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Re: Laying down a set
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK? [/ QUOTE ] I believe he leads this flop with AK close to 100% of the time. I also believe he'd check/call or blocking bet the river rather than leading out for so much. [/ QUOTE ] If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.
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#24
07-12-2005, 04:00 PM
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Re: Laying down a set
For the specific line he took, possibilities for a tight, unimaginative player might include:
AA (3), JJ (3) AK (12), AJ (9) AQ (12), KK (6), QQ (6) (less likely) If he's a solid regular in this game I guess he might not make that river bet with just TPTK, but it looks reasonable to me. But even discounting TPTK, the likelihood that he holds AJ is greater than the combined likelihood of his holding AA and JJ (just counting combinations). On that one alone, and getting better than 2:1, I'd call.
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#26
07-12-2005, 04:02 PM
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Re: Laying down a set
[ QUOTE ]
If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree there. I'd call someone that has AK wit 33 anyday.
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#27
07-12-2005, 04:05 PM
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Re: Laying down a set
I don't like this line at all. You flopped exactly what you wanted. If you are calling a raise in late position with 33 what are you trying to do except flop a set? If you do, and then worry about set over set when there is paint on the board you have defeated the whole point of your original call.
As this hand played out, you must bet the turn. Given that you did not, I would call the river and might even raise. Your check on the turn could well have induced a bet from AK, AQ KK, QQ. Putting him on AA or JJ only is too narrow.
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#29
07-12-2005, 04:07 PM
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Re: Laying down a set
Why bet so close to full pot on the flop? You're way ahead or way behind. Some of the best advice I've ever read was "keep the pot small until you've figured out what everyone has."
On the river I'd call against most people. He probably doesn't have QQ or KK, but I expect that he will sometimes have AK or AJ. If you're laying this down solely based upon your analysis of his play over all of the hands that you've seen, then I don't understand why you're posting the hand -- we can't help you with that type of decision. You're either right or you're wrong, but either way you are in a better position to make the decision than we are.
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#30
07-12-2005, 04:07 PM
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Re: Laying down a set
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree there. I'd call someone that has AK wit 33 anyday. [/ QUOTE ] and then play it the way Ghazban did? Yes definitely +EV [/sarcasm]
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